Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets took a hit across the board over the last 24 hours, with crypto in the red following a broader selloff sparked by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, gold continues its flight higher, tagging another all-time high at $3,330. The VIX has cooled off fast—down from 60 to 30 in just a week—giving risk assets a bit of breathing room.
China signaled it's open to talks, but that wasn’t enough to stop the U.S. from pushing forward with fresh export controls. The Commerce Department dropped new licensing rules for chip exports late Tuesday, prompting a warning from Nvidia about a potential $5.5B revenue hit—dragging the entire chip sector down with it. The U.S.-China tech cold war is very much alive, and semis remain in the crossfire. All eyes now turn to big tech earnings in the coming weeks to see if the selloff has gone too far—or not far enough.
For now, markets are enjoying a moment of calm—but don’t get too comfortable. Volatility is lurking.
Looking at technicals, BTC is trading above the 20-day but stalling near the 50-day MA. RSI is pressing up against resistance around the neutral 50 mark, while MACD looks poised to cross into positive territory. Notably, BTC snapped its ETF outflow streak with a $77.9M inflow—small, but a positive signal.
Solana is holding up well amid the chop, just under its 50-day MA. A clean break above $135 could open the door to $148 and possibly $165. It’s been outperforming BTC and ETH by over 20% this past week. On-chain momentum is strong—SOL has led DEX volumes for three straight days, clearing $2.43B and topping ETH.
Heads up: Fed Chair Powell speaks at 1:30pm ET today on the economic outlook—expect some market reaction.
The News Room
VanEck proposes Bitcoin-linked Treasury bonds to offset $14 trillion in US debt
VanEck has proposed "BitBonds," a novel financial instrument combining U.S. Treasuries with Bitcoin exposure, to address the government's $14 trillion debt refinancing needs. These 10-year bonds would allocate 90% to traditional Treasury securities and 10% to Bitcoin, offering investors a fixed return plus potential gains from Bitcoin's appreciation. If Bitcoin's annual growth exceeds 4.5%, profits beyond this threshold would be shared between investors and the government. This structure aims to lower borrowing costs for the Treasury while providing investors with inflation protection and exposure to Bitcoin's upside. However, investors would bear the full downside risk of the Bitcoin component, and the Treasury would need to issue additional debt to fund the Bitcoin purchases.
Oklahoma exits Bitcoin reserve race as Senate rejects bill
Oklahoma has officially withdrawn from the movement to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) after its Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee narrowly voted 6-5 against House Bill 1203 on April 15. The bill, which had previously passed the House with a strong 77-15 vote, aimed to authorize the state treasurer to allocate public funds to Bitcoin and select stablecoins. Despite Senator Christi Gillespie reversing her initial opposition due to constituent feedback, the bill failed to advance. This decision removes Oklahoma from the list of states actively pursuing Bitcoin reserve initiatives, joining others like Montana and Wyoming where similar efforts have stalled. Meanwhile, 21 other states continue to explore such initiatives, with Arizona, New Hampshire, and Texas leading the charge.
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