Trading Desk Insights
President Trump turned up the pressure on Thursday, once again calling for rate cuts and even floating the idea of “terminating” Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The remarks came on the heels of Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, where he flagged that Trump’s tariffs could fuel inflation and complicate the Fed’s balancing act between growth and price stability. Powell acknowledged the crypto sector's rise, suggesting some banking rules may be “partially relaxed” to accommodate it — a rare direct nod to the industry.
Meanwhile, BTC is holding up better than equities, posting a modest 2% gain over the past month while the Nasdaq shed 6%. But the real institutional inflows have gone into gold, which surged 11% over the same period and is now up 27% YTD — a classic flight to safety. BTC’s correlation with gold has flipped to -0.80, showing an inverse relationship, while its strong +0.80 correlation with AUD/JPY reinforces its growing role as a high-beta risk asset in macro trading.
Technically, BTC remains range-bound, with $83,000 acting as near-term support. The order book is stacked with bids between $81,000 and $83,000, but a break below this zone could open the door to $80,000 and even $76,000 on extension. The market is in need of a fresh catalyst — whether that’s renewed liquidity inflows or a political tailwind that boosts confidence in crypto.
Elsewhere, the ECB delivered a rate cut as expected, but flagged a worsening outlook tied to global trade tensions. In a surprise move, Turkey’s central bank hiked its key rate by 350bps to a staggering 46%, catching markets off guard.
The News Room
Fed Chair Powell advocates for stablecoin regulation, signals openness to crypto innovation
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated the necessity for a regulatory framework governing stablecoins, highlighting their increasing significance in the financial landscape. Speaking at The Economic Club of Chicago on April 16, Powell noted a renewed interest from Congress in establishing legislation that ensures consumer protections and transparency for these digital assets. He also indicated that the Federal Reserve is open to easing certain banking regulations to foster responsible innovation within the crypto sector, provided that financial stability and consumer safety are maintained. Powell emphasized that the Fed does not intend to restrict banks from engaging with legally operating crypto clients, signaling a more accommodating stance towards the integration of digital assets into the traditional financial system.
Panama City council greenlights crypto payments for tax, public services
Panama City has approved the use of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), USDC, and USDT, for paying taxes, fees, permits, and fines. This initiative, announced by Mayor Mayer Mizrachi Matalon, aims to modernize public finance and expand access to decentralized payment options. To comply with national laws that mandate government transactions in U.S. dollars, the city will partner with a local bank to instantly convert crypto payments into USD. This move positions Panama City as a regional leader in crypto adoption and may influence the national government's ongoing deliberations over a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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