Trading Desk Insights
Nonfarm payrolls disappointed this morning, with July job growth slowing to just 73,000 versus consensus expectations of 106,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, in line with forecasts. While the weak print raises red flags for the labor market, it strengthens the case for Fed easing. Odds of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting surged to 67%, up sharply from 38% just a day prior.
Bitcoin pulled back to $114,000 in early trading, retracing part of its recent rally but holding relatively well versus altcoins. BTC dominance ticked up to 62% as altcoins saw heavier losses amid broad-based deleveraging. Over $750 million in liquidations were triggered in the past 24 hours, with BTC finding support at the lower bound of a rising trend channel that’s held since mid-July. A swift rebound to $115,500 followed, and BTC is now attempting to reclaim the $117,000–$120,000 value zone, where most recent trading activity has occurred.
Options markets are flashing renewed caution on ETH. Short-dated puts for August and September are trading at a 2%–7% premium over calls, reflecting growing downside hedging demand. BTC’s skew remains comparatively muted, underscoring relative investor confidence in Bitcoin versus the broader altcoin complex.
Equity markets are caught between competing forces. Strong earnings from Big Tech and AI-fueled optimism continue to push indices to new highs. However, rising geopolitical risks, stretched valuations, and lingering policy uncertainty are keeping risk appetite in check.
Stock futures were in the red Friday morning following President Trump’s announcement of revised tariffs, which range from 10% to 41% on various imports. Goods rerouted to bypass tariffs will face an additional 40% levy. Notably, Canadian exports to the U.S. will now be hit with a 35% duty, up from 25%. The market is beginning to price in the possibility that these protectionist measures could stoke stagflationary pressures down the line.
The News Room
Strategy earned nearly 3× more than Goldman Sachs in Q2 thanks to Bitcoin surge
Strategy, a Bitcoin‐focused investment vehicle, achieved an astounding ~$10 billion in net income during Q2—nearly three times the earnings reported by Goldman Sachs—driven by a massive appreciation in Bitcoin holdings. The firm also added approximately $21 billion in Bitcoin value over the quarter, although it now faces an estimated $4 billion tax liability. To support further BTC accumulation, Strategy launched a $4.2 billion preferred stock offering (STRD), with proceeds earmarked for additional crypto purchases and possible dividend funding.
SEC unveils ‘Project Crypto’ to move US markets on‑chain and rewrite token rules
SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced “Project Crypto,” a commission‑wide initiative to overhaul regulatory frameworks for crypto assets and drive U.S. markets toward on‑chain infrastructure. Emphasizing that “most crypto assets are not securities,” the effort includes drafting tailored disclosure rules, exemptions, safe harbors, and clearer token definitions. It also contemplates license consolidation so that regulated venues may offer trading in securities, non‑security tokens, staking, and lending under a unified structure—while updating custody rules to accommodate self‑custody practices.
IMF, global regulators soften stance on Bitcoin and crypto in wealth assessment standards
The IMF and global institutions have adopted updated national accounting standards (System of National Accounts) that formally recognize cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as “non‑produced non‑financial assets” on national balance sheets—yet exclude them from GDP calculations. This shift marks greater institutional legitimacy for crypto by tracking digital assets among public sector holdings, without distorting traditional economic metrics such as GDP.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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