Trading Desk Insights
The crypto rally has been driven by altcoins stepping into the spotlight as market breadth broadens, even as Bitcoin’s gains remain measured. ETH continues its surge, steering sentiment, while funding rates imply no froth. That shift has knocked BTC dominance below 60%, opening a window for greater altcoin participation. Bitcoin’s market cap hovers near $2.4 trillion, while the total crypto market has eclipsed the $4 trillion mark for the first time.
Ethereum now trades above $4.6 k, drawing elevated bullish activity in derivative markets. Traders are stacking call options betting on a September break above $5 k. Institutions are weighing in too, Standard Chartered raised ETH’s target to $7.5 k by year‑end and $25 k by 2028, anchored on improving fundamentals, institutional demand, regulatory clarity, and upgrades.
In markets, perpetual funding rates across major tokens remain anchored around 10% annualized, a sign that speculative heat is controlled even amid the rally. Meanwhile, CME‑listed ETH futures show open interest rising notably, and the annualized three‑month basis has climbed above 10%. BTC’s metrics show a steadier picture, with CME basis around 7.5%.
On the political front, President Trump ramped up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell on August 12, threatening a “major lawsuit” over cost overruns tied to the Fed’s building renovations and urging immediate rate cuts. Markets remain wary of political interference. Still, analysts emphasize the Fed is mainly navigating murky CPI and employment data, increasing the risk of a policy error rather than collapsing amid political noise. Traders price in a near‑certain rate cut in September. All eyes will be on the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium from August 21–23 for clues.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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