Trading Desk Insights
The crypto market stabilized Thursday after a volatile week, with attention turning to Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech. Bitcoin held near $114,000, consolidating above key support at $111,980 following a sharp midweek drop. On the 4 hour chart, BTC’s pullback triggered a Death Cross between the 50 and 200 period EMAs, underscoring ongoing downside risk. Momentum signals are mixed, with RSI at 39 reflecting persistent selling pressure, while a newly positive MACD hints at a possible short term bounce. A decisive break below $112k could accelerate losses toward $110k, while reclaiming $116k might pressure shorts and reopen the path toward $120k.
Ethereum showed a firmer tone, rising 6% on Wednesday before settling into a rising channel structure. ETH appears poised to challenge its all time high at $4,868, with the $5,000 psychological mark as the next technical milestone. Still, momentum is fragile, with RSI sitting neutral at 57 and MACD remaining below its signal line, suggesting lingering caution. A downside reversal would likely test support near $4,094 at the channel’s lower bound. Flows into spot ETH ETFs remain steady, reinforcing a structural bid that has underpinned recent strength.
Macro remains the main driver. Wednesday night’s FOMC minutes offered little new guidance, leaving markets focused on Powell’s Friday remarks, which will be his final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair. Rate futures still imply an 82 to 83% chance of a September cut, though a hotter than expected PPI print earlier in the week has narrowed that margin slightly. Analysts caution Powell may need to walk a fine line between preserving the Fed’s independence amid political pressure and acknowledging signs of economic softening.
Institutional demand has proven resilient through the volatility. ETF activity remains robust, with Bitcoin and Ethereum products logging multibillion dollar inflows over the past week. Despite some profit taking in spot markets, corporate treasury participation continues to grow, reinforcing the broader demand base.
Crypto Charts
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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