Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin is currently holding above a key confluence of support, the rising trendline on the daily chart and the 50-day moving average, with price action bouncing cleanly off the May high near $112,000. This level remains critical in the near term. A decisive break and close below it could open the door to further downside toward $106,000, with a possible extension to $101,000. On Deribit, BTC and ETH options risk reversals are now tilting bearish through the October expiry, reflecting growing demand for downside protection.
Solana is starting to feel pressure from Base, which has now overtaken it in total token launches, largely due to the viral adoption of social applications like Zora and Farcaster that auto-mint posts as ERC-20 tokens. While Solana remains dominant in memecoin trading volumes, Base’s rapid growth is shifting the innovation narrative, especially in social-token experimentation.
The crypto ETF complex continues to show signs of weakness. BTC spot ETFs recorded their fourth straight day of outflows, while ETH broke a two-day losing streak with $73.3 million in inflows yesterday. Combined, BTC and ETH spot products have seen a net outflow of $922 million since Monday, a signal of fading institutional risk appetite.
Last week’s disappointing jobs report has increased the probability of rate cuts, with SOFR-linked options now pricing in the potential for 75bps in easing across the final three Fed meetings of 2025. While rate cuts typically support risk assets, markets remain divided, and for now, traders appear to be selling into the weakness. Momentum has shifted defensively amid uncertainty about whether a weaker macro backdrop offsets the benefit of easier policy.
In other news, Japan’s SBI Holdings, the country’s largest bank, has announced plans to launch a dual-asset crypto ETF tied to both BTC and XRP, a potential signal of growing institutional demand in Asia despite the recent softness in broader markets.
The News Room
SEC liquid staking guidance clears last hurdle for staking in spot crypto ETFs
The SEC has provided clarity that liquid staking tokens qualify as receipts rather than unregistered securities—effectively removing the final regulatory barrier to including staking in spot crypto ETFs. This guidance paves the way for ETFs to offer exposure to staking yields, opening a new product feature set for issuers and potentially broadening investor access to liquid staking strategies within regulated fund wrappers.
Public Bitcoin treasuries step in with $552M buys amid $1.25B ETF outflows
As spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered $1.25 billion in net outflows, publicly traded companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheets stepped up their purchasing, collectively acquiring approximately $552 million worth of BTC. These treasury-level holdings helped cushion price swings and underscored growing corporate confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset amid ETF volatility.
Tether’s USDT captures 40% of all on-chain fees across 9 major blockchain networks
Tether’s USDT now accounts for nearly 40% of total on-chain transaction fees across nine leading blockchains—a striking measure of its dominance in usage, particularly on Ethereum and Tron. The high fee share highlights USDT's role as a transactional medium across DeFi, trading, and payments, reinforcing its position as the most widely used stablecoin in crypto financial infrastructure.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.
Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
Contact Us
Sign up to receive more exclusive market coverage:
Start trading with Secure Digital Markets today by e-mailing:
trading@securedigitalmarkets.com