Trading Desk Insights
Market flipped risk-off the moment Asia came online. Japan’s 10-year ripped to 1.84%, the highest since April 2008, and that was enough to spook everything with duration. Open interest is climbing even as prices slide, a classic tell that shorts are piling in. The BOJ governor’s hint at a near-term rate hike only fueled it.
BTC caught the downside move fast, dropping roughly 4k in an hour and wiping out about $400 million in long liquidations. We’re now sitting near a key zone, because if April’s 74k lows get taken out, that would confirm a full reversal from the post-election rally in November 2024. RSI bounced off oversold, so a short-term relief bounce wouldn’t surprise anyone, but sentiment has turned defensive.
The flush hit crypto futures too. OI in names like ZEC and SUI cratered more than 10% in 24 hours, and funding rates across SOL and XRP have swung deeply negative, running between -7% and -11% annualized. The market’s message is clear: traders are leaning short and risk appetite is fading.
Strategy cut its FY25 BTC revenue outlook hard, now guiding for $8.4 to $12.8 billion versus $20 billion prior, and trimmed yield targets to 22-26% from 30%. It’s a sign that even the big allocators are dialing back expectations.
Meanwhile, safe-havens are catching a strong bid. Gold’s pushing up almost 1% near $4,300, flirting with all-time highs. Silver just broke $58 an ounce for the first time ever, now up 100% YTD and outpacing the S&P six-to-one.
TradFi isn’t showing much panic though. The Dow and S&P both gained north of 3% last week, while the Nasdaq popped nearly 5%. December tends to favor equities anyway: historically the S&P has posted gains about 73% of the time this month with an average +1.3% move since the late 1920s. Rate-cut odds for December 10 jumped to 88%, up 4 points week-on-week, giving stocks another tailwind.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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