Trading Desk Insights
The past 24 hours left markets feeling a bit cautious as Bitcoin’s near‑term breakout hopes softened and broader sentiment tracked slowing momentum. BTC traded up toward the mid‑$94ks but failed to sustain a convincing break above the key $94,000 resistance, leaving short‑term structure in a holding pattern. Macro developments out of the Federal Reserve added liquidity to risk assets yet did little to conviction in crypto’s upside, while derivative and prediction market pricing signaled low expectations for a year‑end surge above $100,000.
Bitcoin’s price action was characterized by a grinding range between roughly $92,500 and $94,600, with intraday highs touching the upper band but retreats into consolidation dominating late session behavior. Onchain and prediction market data suggest only ~30–35% odds of BTC reclaiming $100,000 before year‑end, reflecting both trader skepticism and weakening institutional appetite for short‑term accumulation. Supply overhead around the $94k zone continues to cap momentum, and while technical patterns like an ascending triangle remain intact on lower timeframes, measured moves point first toward a re‑test of ~$98,000 before any decisive leg higher.
Ethereum tracked Bitcoin’s range dynamics, with ETH modestly outperforming on a relative basis but still lacking a clear catalyst to drive a breakout beyond recent short‑term ceilings. Options pricing for ETH likewise shows cautious positioning, with traders pricing limited asymmetric upside into early 2026 absent a broader risk rally.
Macro flow was highlighted by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week. The committee delivered the anticipated rate cut while initiating a modest government bond purchase program aimed at easing funding conditions. This adds liquidity to financial markets and supported equities in the last session, yet Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets remained muted, with BTC underperforming equity futures and gold as traders weighed ongoing inflation uncertainty and sticky labor data.
Derivatives and sentiment metrics painted a cautious picture. BTC options skew and call pricing imply a 70% probability of settlement below $100,000 into late January, and prediction markets reflect a majority view that a year‑end breakout is unlikely. Meanwhile, routine small buys remain more probable than sizable treasury expansions in the very short term, and onchain inflows from large players have declined, easing selling pressure but not translating into aggressive accumulation.
Equities showed some rotation under the surface with small caps catching bids on the rate‑friendly backdrop, though risk appetite remains divided between stocks and crypto.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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