Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets caught a small bid Tuesday as traders positioned ahead of November’s jobs print. NFP came in hotter than expected, up 64k vs. 50k forecast, but still well off September’s 119k. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.6%, the highest since late 2021, another sign the labor market’s cooling but not cracking. CPI drops Thursday and will likely set the tone into year-end.
Bitcoin traded soft through the morning, sliding almost 2% from a session high near 87,700 down to 86,150 before finding its footing. It’s still hugging equity sentiment, tracking Nasdaq moves, just with more torque on the downside. The risk-off tone in majors is bleeding into alts: the market cap of coins outside the top 10 is now down 42% from the highs versus BTC’s 30% drawdown. The crypto fear & greed index slipped to 16, its lowest in three weeks, signaling traders are getting jumpy again.
Prediction markets show Kevin Warsh pulling ahead of Kevin Hassett in the race to be Trump’s pick for Fed chair, as odds swing against Hassett inside Trump’s camp. Futures are still pricing a 75% chance the Fed holds steady in January.
And on the payments side, Visa just rolled out USDC settlement in the U.S., allowing issuers and acquirers to settle directly in stablecoin. Early participants include Cross River Bank and Lead Bank, with a full rollout expected through 2026, a quiet but major step toward on-chain integration in legacy rails.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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