Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin briefly touched $90K following a softer-than-expected CPI print at 2.7% year-over-year, sparking a quick wave of risk-on flows. The rally stalled just above that mark and quickly retraced to the mid-$86K area. Open interest climbed modestly, pointing to fresh positioning rather than short covering, but momentum faded without a clear follow-through. Spot still needs a clean daily close above the $90K to $92K zone to shift the trend.
Ethereum tagged $2,950 on the CPI bounce but continues to trade heavy after $553 million in spot ETF outflows over the past week. Futures positioning has thinned, staking balances have drifted lower, and DApp activity remains underwhelming. The weak premium in ETH futures suggests buyers are hesitant, and any upside is likely to be challenged without a clear pickup in network demand.
ETF flows remain a drag on majors. Both BTC and ETH spot products have seen net redemptions throughout December, with no strong inflow days to reverse the trend. Alternative products tied to SOL and XRP have gained modest ground, but institutional flows are still directionally cautious. Liquidity remains patchy and unable to sustain rallies.
Equities moved higher on the inflation print, with the Nasdaq leading gains, but crypto continues to show less conviction on the upside. While risk sentiment improved briefly, Bitcoin’s failure to hold gains above $90K suggests traders are still defensive into year-end. The Bank of Japan decision on December 19 is the last major macro catalyst on the calendar.
Markets are quiet, but not disengaged. Volatility remains subdued, with traders leaning into short-term range trades rather than trending setups. Without a decisive reclaim of key levels or a turn in ETF demand, crypto may drift sideways into the final stretch of 2025.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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