Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin bounced back to $94,000 after logging its worst session since March on Monday, a move that’s breathing a bit of life back into the broader crypto market. Altcoins followed suit with SUI, BCH, and LINK ripping double digits over the last 24 hours. The tone feels more like a relief rally than a clean trend reversal though, as order books remain patchy and liquidity thin. Gold’s failure to hold its breakout near $4,300 is adding to the rotation narrative, with some flows possibly eyeing BTC again. Sentiment also got a lift from Vanguard, which just opened up trading for crypto-themed ETFs and mutual funds on its platform, breaking a long stretch of retail disengagement.
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all sketching out potential double-bottom setups on higher timeframes, but none have confirmed yet. A decisive breakout could open up some real upside. For BTC specifically, the $98k to $100k area is the next big test, though that zone lines up with heavy resistance around the 50-day moving average, so expect chop before a clean move.
In TradFi, equities pulled back Wednesday as traders weighed the economic outlook and the odds of a year-end push. December usually brings a tailwind for U.S. stocks, especially after a soft November that saw plenty of profit-taking across big tech and AI names.
The latest ADP print showed private payrolls down 32,000 in November, mostly from small businesses. It’s the final labor snapshot before the Fed meeting on Dec. 9–10, and the tone is definitely cooling. Futures markets are now pricing close to a 90% chance of another 25bp cut, though Fed officials remain split. One camp wants to front-run further labor weakness, while the other’s wary of inflation that’s still stuck well above target.
Meanwhile, chatter around Fed leadership is heating up. Kevin Hassett has emerged as a front-runner for the chair role, and he’s widely viewed as the most dovish of the candidates. If that sticks, it could tilt policy expectations toward deeper cuts next year.
For now, crypto sits in wait-and-see mode. With macro drivers muted and policy uncertainty building, traders seem content to stay patient. Confidence likely improves once BTC clears $100k decisively, but until then, it’s a market trading more on positioning than conviction.
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