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Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin experienced a notable drop, breaking through the $90,000 support level overnight as sell-side pressure from equities weighed on the market. This decline marks a nearly 20% pullback from its all-time high achieved on the day of President Trump’s inauguration and has triggered significant liquidations, totaling $1.5 billion in the last 24 hours. On Monday, the S&P 500 extended its losses to three consecutive sessions, struggling to recover from last week’s downturn driven by concerns over a weakening economy and persistent inflation. The $90,000 threshold had been the lower bound of a narrow trading range for Bitcoin since late November. A close below this level could signal further downside, with potential for a deeper retracement toward the 200-day moving average around $82,000. Maximum open interest in BTC put options on Deribit sits at the $80,000 strike, suggesting this level may offer support. From a technical standpoint, the RSI is now in oversold territory, and a decisive rebound from these levels would be necessary to confirm this as a market bottom.
On Monday, Bitcoin ETFs saw the second-largest outflows of the year, totaling $516.4 million, while Ethereum experienced $78 million in outflows. Additionally, the Bitcoin CME annualized basis, the spread between spot and futures prices, fell below the 5% risk-free rate for the first time. This shift could incentivize investors to unwind positions in favor of higher returns, potentially moving funds from ETFs into CME futures contracts.
President Trump’s lack of decisive action has contributed to the current price weakness in the crypto space. While he made several high-profile promises during his election campaign, tangible steps have been limited. The expected BTC reserve strategy has proven difficult to implement, and Trump’s announcement that U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will proceed as scheduled next week adds further uncertainty to the market.
The News Room
Metaplanet Acquires $12.9M in Bitcoin, Expanding Holdings to 2,235 BTC
Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed investment firm, has acquired 135 BTC for $12.9 million, bringing its total holdings to 2,235 BTC. The purchase is part of its long-term accumulation strategy, with plans to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and 21,000 BTC by 2026. The firm officially made Bitcoin treasury operations a core business in December 2024. Despite a 1.3% stock dip on Tuesday, Metaplanet’s shares have surged 67.5% year-to-date and 233.7% over the past year.
Riot Platforms Reports 34% Revenue Growth in 2024, Fueled by Bitcoin Mining Expansion
Riot Platforms reported a 34.2% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching $376.7 million in 2024, and turned a net profit of $109.4 million compared to a $49.4 million loss in 2023. The surge in revenue was driven by increased mining income, even as BTC production dropped to 4,828 BTC due to rising mining costs from a halving event and a 67% surge in global hash rate. The company raised $579 million through convertible notes, which helped acquire an additional 5,784 BTC, boosting its total holdings to 17,722 BTC by year-end and 18,221 BTC by January 2025, making it the third-largest public Bitcoin holder. CEO Jason Les credited major growth initiatives at the Corsicana facility and strategic acquisitions, while also outlining plans to expand into AI and high-performance computing. Despite these positive results, Riot’s stock closed down 4.5% at $9.99, continuing a 42.5% decline over the past year.
BlackRock Executive Remains Silent on Possible Solana ETF Plans
BlackRock has yet to signal any plans for a Solana ETF, despite filings from Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares. When asked about a potential Solana ETF, BlackRock's Rachel Aguirre avoided specifics, emphasizing the firm's focus on client demand, investment thesis, and ETF suitability. Regulatory uncertainty remains a hurdle, as the SEC’s classification of SOL could impact approval timelines. Bloomberg analysts estimate a 70% chance of Solana ETFs gaining approval under the agency’s more crypto-friendly leadership.
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