Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin is finally doing what it’s supposed to do: outperforming equities. Stocks rolled over mid-week, with S&P 500 futures easing off record highs as traders worked through another batch of earnings, while BTC kept pressing higher.
The metals trade isn’t slowing down either. Silver ripped through $92 to fresh all-time highs, now up 30% YTD, and the related equity complex is following it higher. Supply is already tight and looks set to get tighter after China imposed new export restrictions, a big deal given China is a net exporter of silver.
On the crypto side, the move accelerated fast. Over $100m in BTC shorts were wiped out in the past hour as price pushed to $97k, levels we haven’t seen since November. At the same time, rising political and economic stress in places like Venezuela and Iran is putting Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative squarely back in play. From a technical standpoint, we’ve raised daily support to $89,500, lining up with the prior triangle breakout and the 50-day MA. Upside targets move higher as well, now $99k initially, then $101k if momentum holds.
Flows are backing it up. Cooling inflation and post–year-end rebalancing are pulling institutional money back into crypto ETFs. U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted their largest daily inflows in three months on Tuesday, pulling in $753.7m. ETH ETFs joined the party with $130m of inflows, reflecting improving sentiment across the complex as macro tailwinds turn more supportive.
Lastly on policy, the noise is picking up in Washington. U.S. senators have filed more than 75 amendments ahead of this week’s crypto market structure hearing. Proposals range from banning stablecoin yields altogether, to limiting public officials’ crypto exposure, to redefining how mixers and tumblers are treated. Expect volatility on the headlines, but the broader trend remains constructive.
Crypto Charts
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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