Trading Desk Insights
The past couple of days have been busy, to put it mildly. It kicked off Saturday after Trump threatened eight European countries with higher tariffs, starting at 10% on Feb. 1 and ramping up to 25% by June 1 if no deal is reached that would allow Washington to acquire Greenland. Europe is already talking retaliation. Reports suggest several EU states are weighing counter-tariffs and broader economic measures, with France pushing to deploy the EU’s strongest tool, the Anti-Coercion Instrument. That could mean restrictions on U.S. suppliers, limits on foreign direct investment, and more.
Markets didn’t like it. Asia opened Sunday night with Nasdaq futures down about 1%, and the risk-off tone spilled straight into crypto. Bitcoin slid from $95.5k to $92k, triggering roughly $870 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours. Once again, it highlighted how tightly BTC is trading with equities, despite the digital gold narrative. Polymarket odds of BTC hitting $100k by the end of January dropped sharply, reinforcing the view that bitcoin is still behaving like a risk asset, not a safe haven.
Traditional havens, on the other hand, caught a strong bid. Gold and silver pushed to fresh record highs as geopolitical uncertainty drove demand for safety. Gold hit $4,700, while silver surged to $94.2.
There were some positives before the headlines hit. U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs pulled in $1.42 billion and more than $480 million last week, respectively. Those were the strongest inflows since October and a clear signal that institutional appetite had been rebuilding.
On the network side, Ethereum activity continues to climb. Daily transactions hit a record near 2.9 million and are still trending higher into early 2026. The validator exit queue has dropped to zero, while entry queues remain long, pointing to steady but measured staking growth as the network absorbs heavier usage without major congestion.
Looking ahead, the Supreme Court could rule as soon as this week on the legality of Trump’s use of tariffs, which adds another potential macro catalyst to an already headline-driven market.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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