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Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin is trying hard to push through another record high but the market is waiting for another clear catalyst in order to do so. All eyes are on Trump for the announcement of the Strategic Reserve. Prices remain above $100,000 which is clearly an important psychological support at this point. Dips are to be bought in this market, unless the macro environment shows signs of concern but for now, no reason to believe so.
The altcoin market cap has surged by over 25% since the recent lows posted on Monday Jan 13th. The large caps are leading the way while memecoins have been underperforming the overall market. SOL continues to outperform ETH in almost every category. SOL’s TVL surpassed $10 billion for the first time since the FTX collapse while DEX volume reached back to back records at $28.2 billion on Saturday and $39.2 billion on Sunday.
The options market is seeing increased activity, with traders positioning for bullish moves across both short and long-term expirations. The CME has recorded the strongest bullish sentiment since Trump’s election win, pushing the skew above 4%.
In the crypto ETF space, Bitcoin saw inflows of $802.6 million, primarily driven by BlackRock, while Ethereum attracted $74.4 million in new capital.
In political news, President Trump followed through on his campaign promise to the cryptocurrency community by granting a full pardon to Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road. Meanwhile, Trump also indicated that his team is in talks to impose a 10% tariff on China, potentially taking effect as soon as February 1st—an announcement that could weigh on the recent market rally.
The News Room
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Envisions Bitcoin Soaring to $700,000
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speculated that widespread adoption of a 2% to 5% Bitcoin allocation in investment portfolios could drive the cryptocurrency's price as high as $700,000. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Fink cited discussions with a sovereign wealth fund, suggesting that if more investors embraced modest Bitcoin exposure, prices might soar significantly. While quickly clarifying that he was not endorsing such moves himself, Fink underscored Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against currency debasement and economic instability, especially for those in vulnerable regions. This bullish outlook marks a notable shift from his earlier skepticism, aligning with increased financial advisor interest, institutional backing like BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, and Bitcoin's recent price surges.
Crypto Community Hails Unprecedented Activity as It Reacts to Trump's Memecoin in Early Presidency
The crypto industry has experienced one of its most active periods in history around President Trump's inauguration, driven by the launch of his official memecoin and heightened activity on exchanges like Kraken. This event, marked by unprecedented trading volumes and new investor interest, has fueled optimism for accelerated growth under Trump's pro-crypto administration, with expectations of institutional engagement, innovative ETF listings, and potential price surges for Bitcoin. Analysts anticipate that clearer regulatory support and strategic initiatives—such as a national Bitcoin reserve and more favorable SEC leadership—could further catalyze market expansion. However, amid this optimism, uncertainties remain regarding concrete policy changes, regulatory clarity, and the long-term impact of celebrity-backed tokens on the decentralized ethos of the crypto sector.
US Court Rules Against Tornado Cash Sanctions as TORN Surges 140%
A U.S. District Court has reversed previous sanctions imposed on the crypto mixer Tornado Cash, following an Appeals Court decision that found the Treasury overstepped its authority by sanctioning the immutable smart contracts of the mixer. The ruling, prompted by arguments that Tornado Cash, as software rather than "property," cannot be owned or sanctioned under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, led to a surge of over 140% in the price of its native token, TORN.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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