Trading Desk Insights
The crypto market’s been stuck in chop this week after Monday’s flush. BTC’s still capped below Wednesday’s highs, but the structure looks cleaner now, holding the lower end of the trend channel and starting to grind higher. Worth noting, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has cratered deep into negative territory, back to levels we last saw during the 2018–2019 bear and the 2022 washout. Historically, real trend reversals in BTC tend to come once that ratio claws its way back into positive territory, not when it first goes red.
Meanwhile, equities have been stealing the spotlight. Stocks caught a bid midweek after Trump scrapped the tariff threat on eight European countries that was supposed to kick in Feb 1. He also announced a “framework” deal with NATO’s Mark Rutte around Greenland which apparently was enough to calm risk sentiment for now.
Gold’s still holding its recent gains and looks bulletproof despite the bounce in equities. The metal’s rally continues to be fueled by geopolitical noise, long-term debt concerns, and growing political heat on the Fed. Silver also ripped through the $100 mark for the first time ever, an absolutely wild milestone for what used to be the quiet cousin of gold.
On the ETF side, U.S. spot Bitcoin products just saw $1.22 billion in outflows this week, the biggest since November. That said, there’s a bright spot: Nasdaq officially dropped the position limit on crypto ETF options (no more 25,000-contract cap), which should open the door for bigger institutional hedging and deeper liquidity going forward.
And in tradfi crossover news, UBS is moving closer to offering crypto trading to private banking clients in Switzerland, starting with BTC and ETH. They’ve been vetting partners for months and are already eyeing Asia-Pacific and the U.S. for expansion. Big move, big signal, institutions aren’t done building under the surface.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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