Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin kicked off 2026 on a strong note, rising alongside the broader crypto market as fresh capital flowed in to start the year. The move looks partly driven by positioning and a modest safe-haven bid after the U.S. strike on Venezuela, which also pushed gold higher. Risk appetite is improving, and BTC’s strength has tracked the upbeat tone in equities.
That said, liquidity remains thin. Spot volumes are still sitting near multi-year lows, leaving order books shallow and moves more exaggerated than they should be. The setup looks constructive, but conviction across the market still feels light. BTC needs to break and hold above $94.5k to clear a path toward the $99k–$100k zone, which remains key resistance.
ETF flows continue to be the main driver. Bitcoin ETFs have started the year with over $1.2 billion in net inflows during the first two sessions, including $697 million on Monday, the biggest single-day figure since early October. Morgan Stanley has reportedly filed to launch ETFs tied to Bitcoin and Solana, marking the first major U.S. bank to make that move. Combined with a recovering Coinbase premium, the data suggests recent capitulation may be behind us.
Worth flagging: Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release could be the next macro catalyst. Any surprise there could shift expectations for Fed policy and test this early-year momentum across risk assets.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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