Trading Desk Insights
BTC’s rally took a breather, retracing 5% off the all-time highs in what appears to be a textbook bull-market pullback. The reversal weighed on broader sentiment, with CVD for the top 25 tokens flipping negative over the past 24 hours, clear evidence of sellers stepping in with size. ETF inflows also lost momentum, hinting at waning buyer conviction at elevated levels.
Despite the red across the board, a few names bucked the trend, SUI, TAO, and HYPE showed notable relative strength. ETH has finally broken out of its multi-week range and is now outperforming BTC by 13% MTD, suggesting a shift in capital rotation toward majors with catch-up potential. SOL continues to coil beneath resistance at $168 after bouncing off the $158 support level. That zone is shaping up as the neckline of a potential double top, if it fails, $150 could be next.
On the macro front, U.S. inflation ticked higher in June but broadly met expectations, keeping the door open for a potential Fed rate cut by September. While a couple of Fed members have floated the idea of easing as early as the July meeting, Powell and the broader committee still appear cautious.
In global rates, Japan’s 30-year yield briefly tagged 3.20%, revisiting May’s multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, Wall Street’s fear gauge for Treasuries, has bounced off a key support level that’s consistently preceded spikes in volatility this year.
The News Room
Vanguard becomes top MSTR holder via passive index fund despite snubbing Bitcoin and crypto
Vanguard, long a vocal skeptic of Bitcoin, unexpectedly emerged as the largest institutional shareholder of MicroStrategy (ticker: MSTR)—a company widely viewed as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure—holding over 20 million shares, or nearly 8% of the company’s Class A stock. This position is entirely passive, stemming from Vanguard’s index funds that automatically include MSTR rather than any deliberate bet on crypto.
Coinbase’s $100 billion milestone sparks trillion‑dollar company speculation
Coinbase recently surpassed a $100 billion market capitalization after its stock rallied to fresh highs amid a broader crypto uptrend. Analysts and observers are comparing its trajectory to tech giants like Amazon and Netflix, speculating it could eventually reach trillion‑dollar status as it cements its role in bridging traditional finance with crypto infrastructure. Despite strong momentum, some also warn the stock may currently trade at a premium relative to Bitcoin itself.
OCC, Fed, FDIC publish joint guidance for banks offering crypto custody
U.S. regulators (OCC, Fed, and FDIC) issued joint guidance clarifying how existing banking rules apply when institutions custody crypto on behalf of clients. They emphasized that crypto custody should be treated as a safekeeping service involving exclusive control of private keys, which requires robust risk-management protocols—but cautioned that no new supervisory expectations were introduced. Boards and executives are urged to ensure technical competency, proper key control, and sufficient capital and staffing to manage cyber, legal, and volatility risks.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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