Trading Desk Insights
U.S. equity and bond markets are closed today in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. Markets in Europe and Asia remain open. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, contributing to heightened volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor developments and adopt a cautious, risk-managed approach during this period of uncertainty.
The FOMC held rates steady yesterday, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach as uncertainty around the impact of tariffs on inflation remains high. Chair Powell noted it could take months for those effects to show up in consumer prices, reinforcing the Fed’s data-dependent stance. The updated projections showed higher inflation and unemployment for 2025, with core PCE revised to 3.1% and the jobless rate to 4.5%. Despite this, the Fed still signaled two cuts this year, while raising the 2026 rate outlook to 3.6%.
For crypto markets, the pause reinforces near-term caution around liquidity conditions, while the longer-term inflation outlook and rate path remain key macro drivers for digital assets and stablecoin yields.
Bitcoin is trading near $105K, down 2.5% on the week. Immediate resistance is seen at $107,000 followed by $109,000. On the downside, key support levels include the pivot at $103,500 and $101,500.
Momentum signals are mixed as MACD remains in negative territory while RSI at 48 reflects neutral market sentiment. On the intraday chart, a rounded bottom formation suggests potential for a move toward $107K if buyers can maintain strength above the $104K zone.
The U.S. Senate has also passed the GENIUS Act, the first federal framework for stablecoins, requiring full dollar reserves and banning algorithmic variants. The bill introduces tiered oversight with federal regulation for issuers holding over 10 billion dollars in assets and state-level supervision for smaller firms. This is a major win for Circle, a leading stablecoin issuer, whose stock CRLC surged over 15% following the news. With bipartisan support and backing from President Trump, the bill now heads to the House where passage is expected before the August recess.
No major economic data was released in the U.S. today due to the Juneteenth holiday. On Friday, markets will watch for the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Index m/m, and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report, though none are expected to significantly shift market sentiment.
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𝗖𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 $USDC 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹.
Coinbase is integrating USDC as collateral for futures trading, marking the first regulated use case of the stablecoin in U.S. derivatives markets. The move, made in partnership with Nodal Clear, will use Coinbase Custody Trust as the custodian and is pending CFTC approval. This builds on Coinbase’s existing derivatives offerings, including BTC, ETH, and nano futures. Separately, Coinbase is expanding USDC payments for e-commerce merchants and pursuing SEC approval to offer blockchain-based stock trading. If approved, it would further cement Coinbase’s role in bridging crypto and traditional markets.
3iQ Launches First-Ever XRP ETF on TSX With Backing From Ripple
Canadian asset manager 3iQ has launched the first XRP ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), with Ripple backing the fund as an early investor. The ETF, trading under the ticker $XRPQ, offers direct exposure to XRP and debuts with a 0% management fee for the first six months. All assets are held in cold storage and sourced from reputable exchanges and OTC desks. The fund is accessible to Canadian and select global investors, depending on local regulations. This marks a major step in institutionalizing XRP access, as demand for regulated altcoin products grows. 3iQ previously launched the largest Solana ETF in Canada and was first to offer Bitcoin and Ether funds in the region.
Senate Passes GENIUS Act: Banks & Big Tech Gear Up for Stablecoin Era
The U.S. Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, establishing the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins—marking a significant win for large banks and the broader crypto industry. The bill defines payment stablecoins as fully reserved, dollar-pegged digital assets and prohibits algorithmic variants. It also introduces tiered oversight: federal for issuers with over $10B in assets, state for smaller firms. Pending House and presidential approval, the legislation could pave the way for major institutions—including Bank of America, U.S. Bancorp, and even retail giants like Amazon and Walmart—to launch their own stablecoins. If passed, it would position traditional banks to lead stablecoin adoption, potentially reshaping payments and challenging card networks like Visa and Mastercard.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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