Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets hovered near unchanged levels on Monday, even after the US entered Israel’s war against Iran over the weekend. The reaction in oil markets remained relatively muted, which kept broader risk sentiment in check. The US launched strikes on Saturday targeting Iranian sites in Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz, catching investors off guard who had expected a more diplomatic path following Trump’s Friday statement that a decision on Iran would come “within the next two weeks.” Markets are now on edge, watching closely for Iran’s response. Traders are hoping Tehran avoids actions that could trigger a full-scale regional conflict or threaten regime stability. A move to target US forces stationed in the region or a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send shockwaves through global oil supply chains.
Despite the elevated geopolitical tension, bitcoin continues to shrug off the noise and demonstrate resilience. We remain constructive on BTC but believe SOL has room to outperform in any near-term rebound. ETH has seen some softness in institutional flows, while altcoins broadly remain sidelined amid the latest volatility. Over $1.2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the weekend, led by BTC and ETH. Still, the market’s quick bounce highlights traders’ belief that the impact from geopolitical headlines will remain contained.
Meanwhile, Anthony Pompliano’s bitcoin treasury firm ProCap is heading to the public markets through a $1 billion SPAC merger. The firm is not only holding BTC but actively deploying its balance sheet into yield strategies that leverage the growing crypto-financial infrastructure.
Looking ahead, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress this week will be closely watched for signals on rate policy as political scrutiny mounts.
The News Room
Bitcoin & Ethereum Inflows Surge Amid Geopolitical Risks
Investors poured over $1.2 billion into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs last week, even as geopolitical tensions continue to simmer. Despite concerns about global instability, inflows remained robust—underscoring growing confidence in digital assets as both hedges and strategic portfolio diversifiers amid uncertainty.
Texas Launches Its Own Bitcoin Reserve
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed SB 21, enabling the state comptroller to allocate taxpayer funds and surplus revenue to build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—potentially funding millions of dollars in BTC purchases from the Rainy Day Fund. At current asset levels ($24–28.5 billion), even a 1–5% allocation could mean tens of thousands of BTC, signaling a bold, state-level embrace well ahead of federal efforts.
Metaplanet Zooms Ahead in BTC Holdings
Japan’s Metaplanet acquired 1,111 BTC (~$118 million) in just one week—five times the amount added by U.S.-based MicroStrategy ("Strategy") during the same period. With this purchase, Metaplanet’s holdings total 11,111 BTC (avg. cost ~$95.5k/coin), reflecting ~11% of its 2025 target and a current paper gain of ~$60M. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy continues steady accumulation, now holding ~592,345 BTC.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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