Trading Desk Insights
The market rallied after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, offering a clear sign that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are cooling. With that risk now fading, risk assets have more room to run. Investors will turn their focus toward corporate earnings and the upcoming July 9 tariff deadline.
Bitcoin has been steadily climbing within a defined trend channel since mid-May, and the pattern has held up well. Price action has now pushed decisively above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, re-entering bullish territory. Sell-side interest is building around 106,250 and especially in the 109,000 to 110,000 zone. Open interest is sitting at its lowest levels since the end of May. Funding remains positive but subdued. Volume has been on a downward trend but looks primed for a bounce. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is closing in on its record high from December. A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, with the 50-day moving average pushing above the 200-day, pointing to a possible major uptrend. Given the correlation between Nasdaq and BTC, further upside in equities could serve as a tailwind for crypto.
In the venture space, reports suggest that Polymarket is preparing to raise $200 million at a valuation north of $1 billion.
On the macro front, Fed Chair Powell reiterated the central bank’s intent to hold rates steady until it better understands the inflationary impact of tariffs. The latest dot plot shows a split committee, with 9 out of 19 members favoring zero or one cut this year, 8 expecting two cuts, and 2 looking for three. The futures market is pricing just an 18 percent chance of a rate cut at the July 30 meeting, with expectations leaning toward a move in September.
Separately, the Fed has removed the term “reputational risk” from its bank supervision guidelines, a shift that could relax restrictions on crypto banking relationships.
The News Room
Fed drops “reputational risk” barrier for banks serving crypto
On June 23, the Federal Reserve followed the FDIC and OCC in removing "reputational risk" as a criteria in its supervision manuals, signaling a significant shift toward bank neutrality in serving crypto firms. This change eliminates a long-standing, subjective hurdle that previously discouraged banks from providing even basic services like Bitcoin transactions. With new examiner training underway and inter-agency coordination planned, the Fed aims to focus strictly on quantifiable financial risks—a move that advocates say opens the door for wider institutional adoption of crypto-related banking services.
Texas may dedicate up to $2.1 billion in Bitcoin via treasury fund
Texas is exploring legislation that could allocate 10% of its treasury fund—roughly $2.1 billion—to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, following the recent signing of SB 21 into law on June 22. If fully enacted, Texas would join Arizona and New Hampshire in establishing a state-backed crypto reserve, allowing state institutions to purchase and hold Bitcoin as part of a long-term treasury strategy.
FHFA considers crypto holdings in mortgage underwriting
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has begun examining whether digital asset holdings—like Bitcoin—could be factored into mortgage eligibility assessments. Announced on June 24 by FHFA Director Bill Pulte, the review is part of a broader push to integrate crypto into mainstream financial processes. If adopted, the agency's findings could mark a groundbreaking shift in recognizing crypto assets in traditional credit evaluations.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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