Trading Desk Insights
With Independence Day falling next Friday July 4th, U.S. equity and bond markets will be closed for the holiday. Traders and investors should prepare for lighter volumes and potential pre-positioning earlier in the week as liquidity conditions tighten heading into the long weekend.
Macro focus remains on the Fed’s data-dependent stance following Chair Powell’s testimony earlier this week, where he acknowledged that crypto has “matured and become more mainstream.” The Fed continues to reassess guidance from the Biden era, particularly rules restricting bank interaction with public blockchain networks.
Bitcoin remained flat today, hovering just above $107,000 despite a batch of mixed U.S. economic data coming out at 8:30am EST. Final Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected at -0.5% vs. forecasts of -0.2%, while weekly jobless claims dropped to 236K, below the 244K forecast. The soft GDP print adds to signs of a cooling economy, though the labor market remains relatively resilient.
Barclays’ ban on crypto-related card purchases takes effect today, reinforcing the growing divide among traditional banks when it comes to digital assets. While many global banks have started embracing crypto services through custody, trading access, and stablecoin settlement, others remain cautious and continue to block retail transactions. This contrast highlights a financial system in transition, where some institutions are adapting to evolving demand, while others hold back due to regulatory uncertainty and perceived consumer risk.
On the economic calendar, Friday’s release of the Core PCE Price Index (m/m) will be closely watched, as it serves as the Fed’s primary gauge of underlying inflation. Looking ahead, markets will watch the JOLTs Job Openings on July 1, followed by ADP Non-Farm Employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI on July 2. After the holiday, Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate on July 5 are expected to be key drivers of volatility as investors gauge labor market strength and inflation pressures heading into Q3.
The News Room
SoFi Relaunches Crypto Investing with Blockchain-Powered Remittance Integration
U.S.-based fintech giant SoFi has announced the relaunch of its crypto investing platform, alongside the rollout of blockchain-based global remittances. The move signals SoFi’s deeper push into digital assets, backed by federal clearance to offer custody and stablecoin services via SoFi Bank N.A. Users will soon be able to trade BTC and ETH, with future expansions to include staking, stablecoins, and crypto-backed lending. The blockchain remittance feature allows near-instant, low-cost global transfers, disrupting traditional payment rails. With over 10.9 million members and $37.75 billion in total assets, SoFi’s integration of crypto into its full-service financial ecosystem positions it as a major player in the next wave of institutionalized crypto adoption.
Fed Chair Powell Acknowledges Crypto Maturity, Signals Regulatory Reassessment
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that Bitcoin and other crypto assets have “matured and become more mainstream,” signaling a shift in tone from previous regulatory stances. Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee on June 25, Powell confirmed the Fed is reassessing crypto-related guidance issued during the Biden era, particularly policies under Section 9(13) that discouraged public blockchain activity by banks. While reaffirming the importance of safety and soundness in banking, Powell emphasized that institutions should be free to engage with digital assets under proper risk management frameworks. The remarks suggest a softening regulatory posture and come as the Fed reviews several legacy restrictions that have shaped the U.S. banking sector’s relationship with crypto.
Barclays to Block Crypto Purchases on Bank Cards Amid Consumer Debt Concerns
UK banking giant Barclays will ban all cryptocurrency-related transactions made using its credit and debit cards starting June 27, 2025. The bank cited increasing risks associated with crypto volatility and the absence of regulatory protections, warning that consumers using credit for crypto investments could face unmanageable debt. Barclays emphasized that crypto assets are not covered by the Financial Ombudsman Service or the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, limiting user recourse. This move aligns with broader efforts by UK regulators and the Bank of England to reduce traditional financial institutions’ exposure to crypto. Barclays joins a growing list of banks distancing themselves from digital assets to prioritize consumer protection and financial stability.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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