Trading Desk Insights
Markets remain in a holding pattern, with tariff tensions poised to dominate the macro narrative through July. Tuesday’s pullback followed the OECD’s downgrade of U.S. growth expectations, the group now forecasts just 1.6% GDP expansion, down from 2.2%, citing tariffs and policy uncertainty as key drags. U.S. economic concerns continue to mount as trade tensions, particularly with China, intensify.
BTC pushed higher overnight, tagging $106.5k during the APAC session before slipping back under $105k. We’re likely looking at near-term consolidation between $103k–$107k, with the critical $100k level serving as psychological support. A break below that opens downside targets toward $97k–$93k. Despite BTC’s impressive 40% rally since April, global spot trading volumes remain subdued, with the 30-day rolling average now under $10 billion, a notable slide from the $15 billion levels seen post-U.S. elections. Notably, options flow around BlackRock’s IBIT ETF continues to tilt bearish, with put options reflecting heightened downside hedging.
ETH and SOL are showing stronger relative performance this morning after punching through $2.6k and $160 overnight. ETH is gaining fresh momentum as the Ethereum Foundation restructures its team to sharpen focus on core protocol development in an increasingly competitive layer-1 environment. Meanwhile, XRP Ledger activity has cooled sharply, with payment volumes dropping to the lowest levels since October. While upcoming strategic partnerships aim to drive institutional adoption, XRP’s price has lagged BTC’s latest push to fresh highs.
Interestingly, as the wave of public company treasury plays expands across BTC, ETH, and SOL, we’re starting to see the premium-to-spot valuations on some of the smaller players begin to unwind, a sign that the initial froth is coming off the top.
The News Room
Circle boosts IPO amid strong investor interest, eyes $7.2B valuation
Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has significantly increased its IPO size and price range amid strong investor demand. The company now plans to raise up to $896 million by offering 32 million shares at $27–$28 each, targeting a valuation of approximately $7.2 billion. This move reflects growing optimism in the crypto sector under the current U.S. administration's favorable regulatory stance. Circle reported a 55.1% year-over-year increase in reserve income to $557.9 million in Q1, although distribution and transaction costs also surged by 68.2%. The IPO, underwritten by major firms including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, is set to list on the NYSE under the ticker "CRCL" later this week.
Russian giant Sberbank launches Bitcoin bonds to expand Russian exposure to crypto
Russia's largest lender, Sberbank, has launched Bitcoin-linked bonds, offering a new avenue for compliant crypto investment within the country's regulated financial system. These structured bonds provide returns based on Bitcoin's USD performance and potential USD appreciation against the Russian ruble, all settled in rubles. Initially available over-the-counter to qualified investors, Sberbank plans to list future issuances on the Moscow Exchange, enhancing accessibility and liquidity. The bank also intends to introduce additional crypto-exposed products, including Bitcoin futures, signaling a cautious yet tangible integration of digital assets into Russia's financial infrastructur
Strategy unveils ‘Stride’ stock to fuel fixed-income expansion, boost Bitcoin holdings
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has unveiled its 10% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock ("STRD") to raise capital for expanding its fixed-income offerings and increasing Bitcoin holdings. The company plans to offer 2.5 million STRD shares, each with a $100 initial liquidation preference and non-cumulative cash dividends at 10% annually, subject to board declaration. Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including Bitcoin acquisitions. This move follows Strategy's previous preferred stock offerings and underscores its commitment to integrating Bitcoin into its corporate treasury strategy.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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