Trading Desk Insights
Macro and market developments supported a broad rally across digital assets Monday, with Bitcoin climbing toward the $75,000 level while altcoins significantly outperformed. Bitcoin rose roughly 3.7% to $74,138 and Ethereum surged nearly 9.7% to $2,296, leading gains across major layer-one networks such as Solana and Cardano. The move occurred alongside easing geopolitical tensions after signals that Iranian oil shipments may resume through the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices lower and helped global risk assets stabilize. Despite the strong price action, institutional positioning appears more cautious beneath the surface.
ETF flows revealed continued institutional selling pressure even as prices moved higher. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $4.82 billion in net outflows, while Ethereum and Solana products saw an additional $1.19 billion and $89 million redeemed respectively, bringing total digital asset ETF outflows to roughly $6.1 billion on the session. This divergence suggests that retail or offshore demand absorbed the supply created by institutional deleveraging. Whether this dynamic can persist remains uncertain, particularly with major macro catalysts approaching later this week.
Derivatives positioning provides additional insight into current market sentiment. Perpetual funding rates remain elevated at roughly 0.0082% for Bitcoin and 0.0061% for Ethereum, indicating that traders continue to maintain net long exposure despite recent volatility. At the same time, the CME futures basis has compressed to about 6.8% annualized, reflecting a narrowing term premium as futures converge toward spot prices ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. Combined open interest across Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives remained relatively stable near $23.6 billion, suggesting that leverage has not meaningfully expanded during the latest rally.
Looking ahead, market participants are increasingly focused on the March 19 Federal Reserve rate decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, which are expected to anchor volatility expectations across risk assets. Additional regulatory catalysts include the SEC deadline for XRP ETF applications on March 21 and upcoming Core PCE inflation data later in the month. Until greater clarity emerges from macro policy signals, traders may remain cautious about treating the latest move above $74,000 as a confirmed breakout rather than a relief rally within a broader range.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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