Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin moved toward the $70,000 level on Monday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, but onchain data suggests that recent buyers are showing little sign of panic selling.
The decline in loss driven exchange inflows marks a clear shift from earlier in February, when short term holders sent nearly 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within a single 24 hour window. That earlier surge reflected a capitulation phase as traders reacted to market weakness. Since then, those flows have steadily compressed, suggesting that the most reactive cohort of market participants has already reduced their exposure and that forced selling pressure may be largely exhausted.
Derivatives positioning also points to a more cautious market structure. Bitcoin futures open interest on Binance has fallen from roughly 130,800 BTC at the start of the year to about 97,680 BTC, a contraction of nearly 25%. At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio has dropped to around 0.146, a level historically associated with aggressive deleveraging phases where excess speculative leverage is flushed from the system.
From a technical perspective, traders are watching Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim its monthly rolling volume weighted average price near the high $68,000 region. Sustained trading above this level would place the average monthly participant back in profit and could shift short term positioning sentiment. The next key liquidity band sits between $70,000 and $71,500, where clusters of liquidation levels and resting orders are concentrated.
If that range converts into support, analysts suggest the market could see a continuation move toward the $80,000 region, where supply previously capped upside earlier in the year. Spot market flows during the recent breakout also showed positive delta across major exchanges, indicating that the move was supported by direct buying rather than purely derivatives driven activity.
For now, the broader signal from onchain data is that selling pressure from recent buyers has cooled significantly. With leverage reduced and panic driven exchange inflows declining, bitcoin’s short term trajectory may depend on whether demand can absorb liquidity around the $71,500 region while macro uncertainty remains elevated.
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