Trading Desk Insights
BTC’s outlook remains constructive despite the pullback from its recent high of $98,000 to $94,000, alongside the total crypto market cap slipping below $3 trillion. Despite the retracement, the broader setup remains bullish. On-chain activity is firming up, while funding rates and volume remain relatively muted — a sign that speculative froth has been rinsed out. Technically, BTC is consolidating just below the 61.8% Fib retracement level, a key resistance zone. A dip toward the 20-day MA around $92,000 would be healthy and could provide a reload opportunity.
ETF flows continue to tell a strong demand story. U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs absorbed over 18,500 BTC last week — six times the weekly mining issuance — with $1.8 billion in net inflows across the 11 products. This supply/demand imbalance remains a core pillar of the bull thesis.
On the ETH front, the long-awaited Pectra upgrade rolls out May 7, aiming to boost scalability and reignite interest in the ETHBTC pair, which has been under pressure. This could also spark fresh momentum across Layer 2s and DeFi protocols.
Tether made headlines with the launch of Tether.AI — an open-source, decentralized AI platform built to support USDT and BTC payments. CEO Paolo Ardoino framed it as a strategic move into infrastructure-level AI.
Meanwhile, institutional appetite remains robust as Strategy scooped up another 1,895 BTC last week for $180.3 million.
This week, all eyes are on the Fed. The FOMC kicks off a two-day meeting Tuesday with a rate decision due Wednesday. No cuts are expected, but any shift in tone will be closely watched. Equities are riding a strong streak, with the S&P 500 closing out its ninth straight daily gain on Friday, fully reversing losses since Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.
The News Room
U.S. stablecoin regulation could be delayed as pro-crypto Democrats pull support
U.S. stablecoin legislation faces potential delays as nine Senate Democrats, previously supportive of the bipartisan GENIUS Act, have withdrawn their backing, citing concerns over inadequate provisions for anti-money laundering, national security, and oversight of foreign issuers like Tether. This shift complicates Republican efforts to expedite the bill, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for U.S. payment stablecoins. The Democrats' withdrawal underscores internal party divisions and raises questions about the bill's future, especially amid scrutiny over former President Trump's ties to a $2 billion stablecoin venture, which some lawmakers fear could benefit from the legislation
Litecoin climbs on hopes of ETF green light from SEC
Litecoin (LTC) surged over 4% to reach $89, its highest level since March, amid growing optimism that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve a spot Litecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposed by Canary Capital. Unlike other altcoin ETF applications, such as those for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, which have faced delays, the SEC has yet to postpone or reject the Litecoin ETF application. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted that Litecoin appears to have a better chance of early approval compared to other altcoins, though he cautioned that a delay remains the more likely outcome. The SEC's final decision on the application is expected today, May 5.
Solana averts catastrophe with quiet patch of major token vulnerability
In April 2025, Solana's core development teams and security experts swiftly addressed a critical vulnerability in the Token-2022 standard, specifically within the "confidential transfers" feature that utilizes zero-knowledge cryptography. The flaw, stemming from a missing algebraic component in a cryptographic hash, could have allowed attackers to mint unlimited tokens or unauthorizedly withdraw funds. Upon discovery on April 16, the issue was patched within two days through coordinated efforts by teams from Anza, Jito, and Firedancer, along with security firms Asymmetric Research, Neodyme, and OtterSec. While no exploitation was detected, the revelation led to a 5% drop in the combined value of affected tokens, highlighting concerns about centralization and transparency in Solana's network management.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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