Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets have been heavy all week, caught between stretched equity valuations and a rethink on how much juice the Fed is really willing to add. Markets spent the past few sessions chopping around before rolling over as rate cut odds faded. The December 25bp cut probability slid from 62% a week ago to around 45% today, and that repricing has drained liquidity and risk appetite across the board.
Crypto has been hit hardest, lagging equities and trading with a clear negative skew. The move started as macro traders adjusted for a more hawkish Fed tone, then gathered momentum as volumes dried up. Bitcoin has now shed roughly 25% from its October high, putting it squarely in bear-market territory with a clean pattern of lower highs and lower lows. On the charts, the daily trend remains capped by a descending resistance line dating back to the highs, while the RSI has finally dipped into oversold territory. Gold, in contrast, is up about 55% on the year and sits near record levels, making it one of 2025’s standout performers. BTC is up just 1%, the weakest among major assets. If we zoom out a bit, we can see that prices have landed on the 61.8% Fib level based on the lows of April 2025. Also, on the weekly chart, prices are supported by a rising trend line in place since 2023, serving as hope for crypto bulls.
ETH briefly tested $3,000 and SOL fell to $135 as thin liquidity amplified every downtick. The crypto fear and greed index printed 17, its lowest reading since April, showing sentiment is deep in the fear zone. The tape feels washed out, but follow-through will depend on whether macro pressure eases in the days ahead.
In equities, traders are eyeing a packed earnings calendar with Nvidia reporting Wednesday, a key test for the AI trade, and Walmart and Home Depot offering a read on the consumer. The reaction could shape how tech and growth names trade into year-end.
Over in Japan, long-dated government bond yields spiked after reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s first stimulus package could total around 17 trillion yen, roughly $110 billion. That’s feeding global rate volatility and adding upward pressure on US yields. For crypto, higher global yields tend to hit risk sentiment, tightening liquidity and leaning on digital assets alongside tech.
Overall, it’s a tough tape, macro headwinds, fading liquidity, and shaky sentiment all working in the same direction. The next few days will be about whether Nvidia’s results and fresh consumer data can steady risk before year-end positioning takes over.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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