Trading Desk Insights
Risk appetite is looking shaky this week. Bears are in control, and the tone across markets feels defensive. Bitcoin briefly slipped under 90k, a quick reminder that investors are trimming risk. The drop also spooked equity traders since plenty of tech money is still tied up in crypto. The Nasdaq looks set to end its seven-month winning streak, and the S&P 500 is down about 2.5% for November after six straight green months.
The macro backdrop isn’t helping. Traders have started to doubt whether the Fed will actually deliver a third rate cut in December. Fed funds futures now show a 50% chance, compared to 94% a month ago. That repricing has weighed on growth names, as markets had been leaning on easy policy to justify stretched equity multiples.
This week’s watchlist is straightforward: Fed October minutes and Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, followed by the delayed September payrolls report on Thursday. All three could set the tone into year-end.
On the crypto side, ETH broke below 3k while SOL bounced off 130 and is now outperforming BTC and ETH by roughly 7% and 6% today. Alts stayed soft overall, though DeFi names like HYPE, UNI, and ASTER held up better.
Whale behavior is showing a shift. Addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC have stopped their heavy selling, with activity around neutral. Mid-tier wallets in the 1,000 to 10,000 range are starting to add modestly, while smaller holders remain the most aggressive accumulators. The pattern suggests growing conviction that BTC looks cheap at current levels.
ETF flows tell the other side of the story. BlackRock’s IBIT has posted record outflows this month, about $1.26 billion, contributing to a total of $2.6 billion pulled from the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Derivatives markets reflect the stress too, with the 250-day put-call skew at a seven-month high of 3.1%, showing puts are the priciest they’ve been relative to calls since April.
Still, not everyone is backing off. El Salvador just added 1,090 BTC for roughly $100 million, showing they’re sticking to their accumulation plan despite the broader pullback.
Meanwhile, Cloudflare dealt with infrastructure issues this morning, creating minor service disruptions across parts of the web such as X, AWS, openAI, Uber, Spotify and others.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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