Trading Desk Insights
BTC selling stayed front and center as pressure picked up across major exchanges. On-chain data showed a long-term holder moved roughly $228 million in BTC to exchanges, while miner MARA Holdings sent another $58 million. Spot volume dropped sharply after this morning’s NFP release, and momentum looks heavy with next key support sitting near $84k.
The long-delayed September jobs report finally landed and came in hotter than expected. The U.S. added 119k jobs versus forecasts for 53k, while unemployment edged up to 4.4%, the highest since late 2021. The report still paints a mixed picture, resilience before the shutdown but softening beneath the surface. With revisions showing August flipping negative, this data is dated and doesn’t really capture where things stand heading into November.
On the treasury side, Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Investments tripled its position in BlackRock’s BTC ETF during Q3, leaning in as BTC rallied into October highs. Meanwhile, FG Nexus sold about 10,900 ETH, roughly $33 million, to fund a buyback of 3.4 million shares, or around 8% of its float, to prop up its stock. Digital asset treasuries are under pressure with several trading below NAV as public market valuations lag their crypto holdings.
Fed minutes from the October meeting showed clear disagreement inside the room. Some officials are more focused on slowing employment, others still see inflation as the bigger threat. The split extends to rate path expectations too, with “many” officials signaling no more cuts this year. Markets now price roughly a 42% chance of a 25bp cut in December.
Nvidia gave risk sentiment a lift after smashing third-quarter expectations. The company posted $57.0B in revenue, up 62% year-on-year and well ahead of the $55.2B consensus. Management guided even higher for Q4, projecting $63.7B to $66.3B in sales. The print helped revive the AI trade after a soft stretch driven by valuation worries.
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