Trading Desk Insights
BTC finally cracked below the $100k mark overnight, tagging $98,800 before buyers showed up. That quick slip kicked realized vol back into the 50s and sent sentiment straight into fear mode, with the index printing 20 this morning. The short-term mood is rough. Most of the sell flow is still coming from long-term holders, those sitting on coins for at least 155 days. Their stash has dropped to around 14.4 million BTC from 14.7 million at the July peak, a decent amount of supply hitting the market. The level everyone’s watching now is the 50-week moving average, which has acted like a trampoline multiple times since 2023, each time resetting momentum for the next leg up.
Even with the bleed, there’s a sense we’re getting close to exhaustion. Retail selling pressure looks nearly tapped out, which historically has lined up with local bottoms. Add in the steady support from Wall Street allocators and the continued expansion of crypto ETF products, and it wouldn’t take much of a catalyst to flip the tape higher again.
Equities are helping for now. The Nasdaq bounced cleanly off its 20-day moving average near 25,400 with a hammer candle, a short-term bullish tell. For BTC to hold above six figures again, risk sentiment in stocks probably needs to stay firm. Getting properly bullish again would likely require a liquidity boost, which for now means resolution on the government shutdown front.
Stocks closed lower Wednesday as traders continued to fade stretched AI valuations. Still, there’s no real change in the broader story, AI infrastructure spend is strong and most investors see this pullback as more rotation than reversal. The long-term trend for tech remains intact, even if the next few sessions stay choppy.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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