Trading Desk Insights
Bitcoin traded heavy overnight, sliding back toward 102K before buyers stepped in to defend the psychological 100K level. Momentum remains fragile as traders face thin liquidity and lingering macro uncertainty. Realized volatility rose into the 50 range, and open interest stayed steady, showing hesitation rather than capitulation. Funding remains neutral, pointing to position cleanup instead of new directional conviction.
From a technical view, Bitcoin is holding just above its 50 week moving average near 99K. This zone has supported every major rebound since 2023. A weekly close below 97K could open the door to deeper tests, but ETF and treasury inflows continue to offset long term holder distribution.
ETH followed, touching 3,350 before rebounding. Roughly 480 million dollars in long liquidations erased its yearly gains, and price remains pinned near the 3,000 level. A break below there exposes 2,400, while reclaiming 3,700 would signal fresh strength.
Macro conditions stay uncertain. The ongoing United States government shutdown has paused data releases, leaving traders focused on liquidity rather than fundamentals. A Treasury General Account drawdown could ease conditions, while China’s accommodative stance and strong equity markets are helping to steady sentiment.
Net takeaway: Crypto markets are consolidating, not collapsing. Bitcoin’s defense of 100K and Ether’s hold near 3,000 suggest cleanup rather than breakdown. Liquidity and seasonality will drive risk appetite into year end, and the broader digital asset uptrend remains intact despite heavier conditions.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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