Trading Desk Insights
Just when it looked like we were clear, the tape rolled right over. In the past 24 hours BTC chopped between 107,000 and 113,000, with roughly $635 million wiped across futures. That is your tell on how shaky sentiment still is into the last stretch of October.
Bulls could not punch through 116,000, which is the level that needs to go to talk about a clean move back into bullish territory. Bigger picture the uptrend on longer time frames still points higher, but positioning is fragile and patience is thin. Some are eyeing pushes below 100,000 as opportunities rather than regime change.
Macro added a headwind. President Trump floated that his expected meeting next week with President Xi might not happen, and the headline stirred another round of U.S. China trade anxiety with the usual tariff chatter back in the mix.
Gold eased for a second straight session on Wednesday as traders took profits after a several week run. The metal is off more than 7% from Monday’s 4,400 high, with slowing momentum and firmer option vol prompting technical selling. Even so, gold remains up more than 50% this year and nearly 5% this month. The drivers have not disappeared, inflation, tariff risk, questions around Fed independence, and U.S. political uncertainty.
One cross market note. A sharp gold dump this week lined up with an intraday BTC bounce, which smells like a small rotation out of gold into crypto. Gold has been cannibalizing the BTC bid for weeks, which helps explain the underperformance. If gold keeps leaking, BTC has room to play catch up.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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