Trading Desk Insights
Risk assets caught a bid Friday after a softer inflation print nudged rate cut hopes higher. CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 3.0% year over year, a small beat versus 0.4% and 3.1%. Equities and crypto popped on the headline, then gave some back as the move faded.
Under the hood, crypto still looks tired. Spot volumes are light, and BTC options on Deribit keep a steady put skew that speaks to cautious positioning. Fnding across majors sits near flat, which says the market is balanced but not chasing. Alts found a bid with oversold names like SOL, XRP, and HYPE grabbing traction.
Prediction markets are suddenly front and center. Polymarket is in early talks on a raise that could value the platform between $12 billion and $15 billion, roughly 10x its June mark near $1 billion. Rival Kalshi is also in the market, reportedly targeting a valuation above $10 billion after raising $300 million at about $5 billion earlier this month.
Elsewhere, hedge fund assets hit a fresh all time high near $5 trillion, powered by third quarter allocations and positive returns. Hedge Fund Research flagged the biggest quarterly net inflow since the third quarter of 2007.
On the policy tape, President Trump said he terminated all US trade negotiations with Canada over an allegedly fake advertisement that features former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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