Trading Desk Insights
Markets keep inching higher despite the noise. A U.S. government shutdown has now rolled into week two with no funding deal in sight, but risk shrugged it off. Investors seem more focused on the path of monetary policy than missing jobs data. Friday’s NFP was pushed back thanks to the shutdown, and so was any hope of quick movement on market structure bills or the launch of new spot crypto ETFs. The SEC had been expected to allow listings tied to Solana and Litecoin, but that window has closed for now.
Crypto is still climbing. BTC ran through $125K over the weekend on solid spot demand, a move that looks like traders leaning into rate-cut bets. Total crypto market cap cleared $4 trillion, but most of the action stayed concentrated at the top. Altcoins have been mostly flat to choppy relative to BTC, with few real standouts. BNB is still marching to its own beat. Aster caught attention with a sharp 25% move off Sunday’s lows, but on-chain signals are flashing yellow. Perp volume patterns looked a little too similar to Binance’s XRP flows, fueling concerns about wash trading behind the pop.
Over in the public markets, MicroStrategy posted a $3.9 billion fair value bump on its BTC stack for Q3. Notably, Saylor sat out the latest rally, with no new buys last week for the first time since April. Might just be catching his breath.
Macro had its own drama. France’s new PM Lecornu is already out just weeks in, deepening political jitters there. Japan’s incoming PM Takaichi Sanae is talking stimulus, reviving Abenomics-style policies in a clear nod to markets.
One offbeat mover was ADM, ripping 35% higher after news broke that OpenAI might take a 10% stake in the chipmaker. Altman clearly wants more control of the silicon behind the scenes.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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