Trading Desk Insights
Prices slipped as BTC couldn’t clear meaningful resistance near $126,000. That failure triggered cascading selling flows especially out of Asia pushing total liquidations over $625 million in the past 24 hours, while a stronger dollar squeezed risk assets. It’s wild how fast the backdrop can shift; Bitcoin only recently breached all‑time highs, but the pressure has quietly been mounting.
Still, it’s not all capitulation. Institutional interest and ETF allocations remain firm as Bitcoin pulled in more than $2 billion of inflows over the past two days. That kind of demand shouldn’t be ignored.
We’re seeing crypto more and more as a regulated, macro‑driven instrument especially Bitcoin. It no longer lives in its own silo. The USD had been languishing near a 3‑year low, but it’s jumped 2% since early October, hitting a 2‑month high and dragging down risk assets broadly. If the dollar clears 99, it could test 100 maybe even extend toward 103 and that would put serious strain on leveraged plays.
Meanwhile, rising Japanese yields are adding a nasty tailwind for crypto investors. The 10‑year JGB yield has climbed to 1.7 %, its highest in decades, which could cascade into broader sovereign bond markets and tighten up upside for risk assets across the board.
On the alt side, SOL is clinging near its 50‑day MA, and AVAX is punching above its weight thanks to strong treasury moves. BNB continues to dominate as it just hit $1,350, and that’s lifted related tokens like CAKE up 85% since last week.
All eyes today turn to the Fed meeting minutes, due later this afternoon. That will be critical for reading the internal debates after a contentious September meeting. And don’t forget the U.S. government shutdown, now in day seven. So far equities haven’t cracked, but if this drags on it could bleed into market sentiment in unpredictable ways.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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