Trading Desk Insights
Crypto rallied Thursday evening past 6pm ET, with BTC climbing 1.5% from $114,500 to a session high of $116,300. The move tracked a buoyant macro backdrop as markets leaned further into the Fed pivot narrative following Thursday’s CPI print, signaling continued confidence that the Fed will prioritize supporting the labor market, looking past concerns of sticky inflation. Traders now price in 70bps of easing by year-end and 125bps by mid-2026, implying a terminal rate in the 3.00% to 3.25% range. Despite softer-than-expected economic data Thursday, the path of policy looks unchanged, lower for longer, with the Fed expected to prioritize labor over inflation risks.
But the real energy was in alts. SOL outperformed sharply, up 5% on the day versus BTC and +16% since the start of September. It flipped BNB in market cap to claim the #5 spot, driven by strong treasury buying and optimism around a potential spot ETF. XRP is in the mix too, with both tokens viewed as near-term beneficiaries of the expanding ETF narrative. BNB and HYPE also saw strong demand into fresh highs, as risk continues to rotate further out the curve.
Flows support the shift. Spot crypto ETFs saw their fourth straight day of BTC inflows, with $552.7 million on Thursday, while ETH products added $113.1 million in their third consecutive day of inflows. Funding rates remain well-anchored near 10% annualized, suggesting the market is active but not yet overheated.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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