Trading Desk Insights
Over the weekend markets drifted in mixed territory. Bitcoin traded between $115,000 and $117,000, showing little directional conviction. SOL outpaced most, climbing 3% toward $250. Those gains however proved fragile, by early this morning prices softened across risk assets.
Sentiment indicators are tilting cautious. Futures open interest among the top‑25 coins has fallen over the past 24 hours, with memecoins seeing double‑digit outflows. Confidence tied to meme tokens was further shaken after a flash loan attack on Shiba Inu’s Shibarium network caused a $2.4 million loss. DOGE also came under pressure, with large whale transfers adding to a bearish bias.
Options markets suggest downside risk has eased. Short term skew on BTC remains negative but has rebounded from last week’s troughs. The call/put skew, which was leaning bearish, has moved back to neutral, a sign markets are less anxious about sharp drops.
Macro signals helped fuel the earlier optimism. New economic data showing a weakening labor market and mild inflation raised hopes the Fed will deliver a rate cut when it wraps up its meeting this Wednesday. Currently the market is pricing in 96% odds of a 25bps cut, with just 4% chance of a 50bps cut. If expectations hold, shorter dated US Treasury yields like the two‑year may fall, while yields further out might stay elevated, pressured by fiscal imbalances and sticky inflation.
In equities, Tesla led. The stock jumped 7% as Elon Musk executed about $1B in share purchases Friday, his largest direct open‑market buy by value. It’s a notable move given his last large open‑market acquisition wasn’t until February 2020. The major averages rounded off a solid week.
Crypto Charts
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