Trading Desk Insights
It’s Fed day, with markets eyeing a largely expected hold on rates but plenty of attention on the updated dot plot and Powell’s tone. Consensus leans toward one or two cuts by year-end, though economic projections and the press conference will carry more weight than the policy move itself. A dovish tilt could extend the recent risk rally, while any perceived hesitation might pull risk off the table. We expect Powell to nod at labor market softness but stop short of signaling a policy pivot.
Crypto tried to squeeze higher into the event, but momentum faded quickly. BTC continues to stall below $117,400, where ask-side liquidity builds on every push. ETH has trended lower since Friday, while SOL’s early-week strength cooled despite fresh treasury inflows. The digital asset treasury (DAT) narrative is losing steam as multiple vehicles dip below their 1 mNAV marks. BTC remains on the sidelines as traders chase altcoin beta, but a clean BTC breakout is still seen as key to extending cycle momentum. In the short term, caution into the Fed has kept a lid on upside.
Even so, demand for spot ETFs has held firm. Since last week, BTC ETFs have pulled in $2.9 billion in net inflows, with ETH spot products adding nearly $940 million.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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