Trading Desk Insights
Crypto markets remain under pressure, with over $1.7 billion in liquidations in the past 24 hours. There’s little to drive a rebound. Without fresh headlines, markets look set to consolidate lower. BTC’s next levels to watch are $110,000, then $107,000. Option sentiment has turned bearish across XRP and SOL, echoing weakness already showing in BTC and ETH derivatives.
ETF flows aren’t doing enough to shift momentum. U.S.-listed BTC ETFs have brought in $3.48 billion so far this month, but ETH ETF flows are lagging badly at $407 million. Allocation trends clearly favor Bitcoin, but even that hasn’t been enough to push it higher.
Gold, meanwhile, continues its run as the favored haven. It climbed another 1% Monday to a record $3,720, now up 43% year to date. Intriguingly, that move began Sunday evening, just as BTC started slipping, suggesting some liquidation profits may have rotated directly into gold.
HYPE’s unlock schedule is drawing attention. Starting November 29, 237.8 million tokens will vest linearly over two years, nearly $500 million of monthly supply at current levels. With the token trading around $50, that’s roughly $11.9 billion set to enter circulation.
M&A made headlines with Strive’s acquisition of Semler Scientific in an all-stock deal at a hefty 210% premium. Semler shareholders will receive 21.05 shares of ASST per SMLR share. Alongside the deal, Strive announced it bought 5,816 BTC for $675 million, taking advantage of Semler’s valuation trading below its bitcoin treasury.
BitMine also stepped into the spotlight, raising $365 million in a stock sale priced 14% above market. Chairman Tom Lee said the firm plans to expand its ETH position with a goal of owning 5% of total supply. Metaplanet, meanwhile, has climbed to become the fifth largest corporate BTC holder.
On the macro side, equities are hovering near highs while rates markets continue to price in about five more Fed cuts over the next year. Futures markets now assign a 75% chance of two more cuts by year-end, up from 38% a month ago. But with dovish expectations largely baked in, further upside in stocks may hinge on stronger incoming data.
One risk to monitor: the growing chance of a U.S. government shutdown. Last week, the Senate failed to pass stopgap funding bills from either party. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is now urging President Trump to meet with Democrats ahead of the September 30 deadline.
Crypto Charts
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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