Trading Desk Insights
Crypto finally found a pulse after last week’s flush. BTC and ETH clawed back $112k and $4.1k, roughly where we were Thursday. Even with chunky ETF outflows on Friday, spot held its ground into the weekend, and since Sunday we’ve seen a clean rebound in price, OI, and volumes. If spot keeps carrying the baton, this week’s ETF prints will set the tone for institutional demand into a seasonally friendly stretch.
Range break needs fuel which would require volatility and sentiment to come back to life. Q4 starts Wednesday and could be the spark. “Uptober” has historically been bitcoin’s second-best month (avg 22%), with November next up and even stronger (avg 46%). If flows flip positive, the path of least resistance is up.
Alts are getting rotation, legacy names are bid with treasuries backstopping timid retail, but the tape favors the new tickers lighting up CT: BNB, SUI, XRP, ASTER, HYPE are where the energy is.
On rails, SWIFT is moving beyond messages to money, adding a blockchain-based shared ledger to enable 24/7 cross-border settlement and plug into stables, tokenized deposits, and CBDCs. No timeline, but the direction of travel is clear.
Macro backdrop cooled the mood last week. Equities wobbled as the street questioned two pillars of the rally: endless AI capex and an aggressive Fed easing path. All eyes on NFP Friday. Another Goldilocks print keeps the bid alive, too hot risks a hawkish tilt, too cold feeds slowdown fears. Until then, crypto trades the range, waiting for flows and vol to pick a side.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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