Trading Desk Insights
The BTC breakout that started early Sunday kept its legs through Monday, climbing 4.75% and briefly tagging $115,000 before settling closer to $112,600. ETH tracked the move, holding near $4,100, with both lifted by strong ETF inflows, $518 million into BTC and $547 million for ETH. Crypto is playing catch-up to gold and equities, which have been quietly grinding higher. BTC may need gold to cool off before reclaiming the spotlight, as recent flows suggest some crowding out.
Friday’s options expiry passed without fireworks, but one structural shift stood out: BlackRock’s IBIT has now overtaken Deribit as the largest venue for BTC options. Open interest on IBIT reached $38 billion versus Deribit’s $32 billion, marking the first time since 2016 that Deribit hasn’t led. IBIT and Deribit now make up nearly 90% of BTC options OI, underscoring the shift from offshore venues to regulated, ETF-linked products.
Altcoin action has been heavy to the downside. Most names are in the red, with recent darlings like ASTER and HYPE taking the brunt as unlock schedules run headfirst into fading liquidity. The pullback hasn’t dented ETF optimism, though. The SEC is fast-tracking approval standards across multiple issuers, and a wave of green lights in October looks increasingly likely. That could finally provide a spark for alts heading into what many hope is another classic “Uptober.”
Regulatory momentum has picked up as well. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said “crypto is job one” and emphasized closer coordination with the CFTC, including a plan to blur the line between securities and commodities oversight. Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham called the agency turf war “over,” and the White House reportedly wants a market structure bill on the president’s desk by year-end. Tokenization of real-world assets was highlighted as a near-term focus.
Outside of crypto, equity futures turned lower Tuesday as markets digested the rising odds of a U.S. government shutdown. Normally a sideshow, this one has teeth, with recession fears, stagflation risks, and lofty equity valuations already in play. A shutdown could also invite scrutiny from credit agencies, one of which, Moody’s, cut the U.S. rating back in May. Still, the S&P 500 is pacing toward a rare up-month in September, up over 3% with one session to go, defying its usual seasonal slump.
Crypto Charts
ETF Flow
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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