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Crypto Stocks Surge Amid Market Optimism Following Trump Election Win
In premarket trading, cryptocurrency-related stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy jumped by 12% and 13%, respectively, as markets rallied in response to Donald Trump's U.S. election victory. Broader market futures surged, with the Dow Jones up over 1,312 points and gains across the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Analysts at QCP Capital noted a historical trend of post-election rallies in Bitcoin, which reached a new high above $75,000 amid optimistic expectations of favorable regulatory policies under Trump’s administration. While specific plans remain unclear, the industry anticipates a positive shift toward crypto regulation in the U.S.
Polymarket Settles 2024 Election Bets as AP, Fox, and NBC Declare Trump Winner
Polymarket has resolved its U.S. presidential election market after major news outlets, including the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC, called the race for Trump, concluding over $3 billion in trading volume. Polymarket users had given Trump a 62% chance of winning, which solidified in the weeks leading up to Election Day despite national polls showing a tight race. Trump's pro-crypto stance, including plans for a U.S. bitcoin reserve, attracted strong betting volume in his favor, while Harris did not put forth specific crypto policies. Analysts noted potential volatility for crypto markets based on the outcome, with bitcoin prices surging above $75,000 following the result, marking a 7.3% rise within 24 hours. The GMCI 30 index, representing the top 30 cryptocurrencies, also climbed 9% on Election Day, reflecting a positive reaction from the crypto market.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high above $74,000 as Trump takes early lead on Election Day
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, reached a new all-time high above $74,000 as markets responded to Donald Trump’s early lead in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The cryptocurrency has gained nearly 70% year-to-date, supported by record-breaking inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and anticipation around Bitcoin’s recent halving event. Analysts suggest Trump’s pro-crypto stance has driven a surge in crypto optimism, with Polymarket prediction markets favoring Trump’s victory at 84.3% odds. The broader crypto market also saw gains, with Ethereum up 6.7% and Solana rising over 13%. Further volatility is expected as votes continue to be counted and macroeconomic uncertainty looms.
Trading Desk Insights
It’s official, Donald Trump is officially the elected President of the United States of America.
Following the election results, we've observed a noticeable uptick in risk assets ranging from cryptocurrencies to equities. Notably, Bitcoin surged to a new record high of $75,500, spurred by market anticipation of a regulatory easing under the new administration. The cryptocurrency sector experienced a 6.5% increase in market capitalization, with particular outperformance noted in DOGE and other meme coins. Pre-market trading also shows significant gains in crypto-related stocks. This optimism is largely fueled by Trump's campaign portrayal as a pro-crypto candidate, which suggests a potential easing of U.S. regulations impacting the crypto space. The political climate in the U.S. appears increasingly favorable towards cryptocurrencies, potentially speeding up their adoption into the mainstream.
Historical data from election years, including 2012, 2016, and 2020, shows Bitcoin achieving returns of approximately 90%, 40%, and 150% respectively in the 90 days post-election, aligning with Bitcoin halving years and often corresponding with shifts in Federal Reserve policies. This year, the market is poised for potential reductions in interest rates.
Furthermore, decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have consistently offered more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods. Trump has maintained a lead on these platforms well before the election results, challenging the tighter race suggested by mainstream media and pollsters.
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Disclaimer
This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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