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Bitcoin hovered near $93,500 through the session, giving the market a breather but still stuck in a downtrend that began in early October. The next upside test sits around $98,500, a level that needs to break for the structure to flip bullish. Ether followed through post-upgrade, tagging $3,200, while overall sentiment lifted slightly. The Fear and Greed index ticked up to 27, exiting the “extreme fear” zone for the first time in over a week.
Derivatives flows leaned cautious but constructive. BTC’s 30-day implied volatility dropped to 48.44%, its lowest since mid-November, and ETH’s vol settled near 72%. Demand for BTC puts stayed firm across tenors, while ETH options showed light call skew beyond August 2026. The $100K BTC strike is again the most crowded trade on the board with $2.82 billion in open interest. Strangle flows dominated block prints in both majors, and OI climbed in ETH and ZEC futures. FART futures, oddly, saw a 22% OI spike, signaling a flare-up in speculative activity. Altcoins continue to lag.
The altcoin season index slid to 20 out of 100 as capital rotated back toward BTC. Outside of small pops in TAO, ENA, and AVAX, most names drifted sideways or lower. HBAR gave back 3.8% as ETF-driven volume faded. Privacy coins flipped red after their multi-month rally, with ZEC down nearly 30% and DASH off 22% on the week. Compared to last year’s memecoin-driven froth, today’s market feels cleaner, more development-driven, but also quieter. Less retail, less noise. For now, crypto feels like it's idling in neutral. Positioning and sentiment are resetting, but conviction remains light until BTC clears $98,500 with authority.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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