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Welcome to Fed week. Crypto caught a bid Monday as traders leaned into the idea of a Fed rate cut and a softer macro tape. The cut itself is priced in, but everyone’s watching Powell’s tone for clues on what 2026 might look like. The street’s split on how far he’ll actually go, and the move higher in the 10-year yield says bond desks are hedging for something less dovish. Under the hood, flows still look healthy with big wallets adding and exchange balances near lows, but everything is trading off macro right now. With the meeting two days out, BTC likely chops in range as positioning stays tight and leverage light.
Alts were mixed but lively. ETH and SOL both bounced with conviction after weeks of sideways churn, with bullish divergences starting to build on higher time frames. A clean break above $3,250 for ETH could open $3,400, and SOL above $147 puts $160 back in view. Elsewhere, HYPE, ASTER, ZEC, and TAO saw brisk 5–10% intraday swings as speculative rotation crept back into the tape.
Equities stayed bid after Friday’s delayed core PCE print came in softer than expected, easing inflation nerves heading into Wednesday’s FOMC. Fed funds futures now show about a 90% chance of a rate cut, up sharply from roughly two-thirds a month ago. Traders are reading it as the last big macro catalyst of the year.
In Washington, White House advisor Hassett teased “huge” positive economic news coming soon, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said the holiday season’s been “very strong” and projected year-end growth near 3% real GDP.
And in headline crypto news, Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy added another 10,624 BTC worth roughly $962 million, keeping the accumulation theme alive heading into Fed week.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
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