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Bitcoin’s price has been holding in the $88,000 – $92,000 range recently, testing key macro and technical support after a broader retracement from its October 2025 peak above $120,000 +, with traders watching both the $90,000 band and resistance near $95,000 to $100,000 for directional cues.
On‑chain data show long‑term holders (LTHs) moving coins dormant for years at unprecedented rates across 2024 and 2025, marking some of the largest revived supply on record. This broad distribution from older cohorts differs from past cycles where revived supply coincided with speculative momentum and retail fervor.
That suggests a structural shift in the cycle: instead of classic boom‑and‑bust driven by retail sentiment and leverage, much of the supply signal reflects strategic adjustments around macro regime changes and institutional allocation decisions. Models framing late‑2025–2026 as a phase of range‑bound trading around core zones rather than straight continuation align with the idea that BTC is absorbing long‑dated supply while awaiting fresh catalysts.
Macroeconomic backdrop remains influential. Risk assets have shown choppiness amid geopolitical tensions and policy noise, contributing to haven demand in gold and metals even as BTC lingers near key levels. That broader risk‑off posture pressures crypto risk markets and tempers momentum. Recent macro commentary from structured finance forums highlights how Fed rate expectations and global trade policy uncertainty have seeded volatility across asset classes this year, with crypto not immune.
In this environment, Bitcoin’s behavior resembles a cycle familiar in broad outline — rally to new highs, followed by profit‑taking and consolidation but the underlying drivers are evolving. Long‑term holders are not simply repeating the 2017 or 2021 pattern of distribution; realized selling is occurring amid institutional flow dynamics and macro sentiment shifts rather than classic retail mania.
On price structure, technical indicators and forecasts generally frame $80,000 – $140,000 as the broad structural range for 2026, with near‑term upside hinging on reclaiming key resistance and absorption of supply overhang. Macro triggers such as policy shifts or liquidity inflections are viewed as necessary to break out of consolidation. At the same time, many alt coins are well below their 50 week moving average with $ETH trading around $3,000.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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