January 26, 2026

Trading Desk Insights

Risk came off hard on Sunday with investors dumping across the board after another chaotic week of Trump headlines out of Davos, Greenland, tariffs, and his usual geopolitical fireworks. Monday’s open looked a lot steadier though, with traders regrouping ahead of a big week packed with earnings and the first Fed meeting of the year. Equities are still outpacing crypto, but BTC managed to bounce about 2% off Sunday’s $86k lows before stalling near $89k. Trend’s still lower highs, lower lows, and vols are showing it, open interest has steadied but there’s strong demand for short-term downside protection.

BTC continues to lag traditional havens as yen strength and fiscal jitters weigh on sentiment. The Fed’s “rate check” with the BoJ has traders wondering if there’s coordinated intervention brewing, and that’s pushed people to lighten up on risk again as the yen carry unwinds.

Eyes are now on Wednesday’s Fed decision. The rate call itself should be a snoozer, but Powell’s tone will set the tone, a dovish lean keeps the dollar soft and could give crypto some air, but anything remotely hawkish probably drags BTC back toward the lows.

Elsewhere, Canada’s PM Mark Carney said the country won’t chase a trade deal with China after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian exports, another reminder of how hot global trade politics are getting.

On the policy front, Congress is finally pushing forward with a federal crypto bill that could clean up the regulatory mess we’ve been operating in for years. If it lands the way it’s being pitched, it should bring clearer oversight on token classifications and stablecoins, a big step toward making crypto markets safer and more investable for mainstream money.

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Disclaimer

This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

The information on which the analysis is based has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable such as, for example, the company’s financial statements filed with a regulator, company website, company white paper, pitchbook and any other sources. While Secure Digital Markets has obtained data, statistics, and information from sources it believes to be reliable, it does not perform an audit or seek independent verification of any of the data, statistics, and information it receives.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Secure Digital Markets does not represent that the report contents meet all of the presentation and/or disclosure standards applicable in the jurisdiction the recipient is located. Secure Digital Markets and their officers, directors and employees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses, or opinions within the report.

Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.

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