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Bitcoin’s been trying to find its footing but still sits uncomfortably close to the week’s lows around $83k as the metals unwind continues to drain capital out of crypto. The precious metals bubble might’ve finally cracked, gold’s down 16% and silver’s off a brutal 38% from last Thursday’s highs. Feels like rotation is starting. The BTC/gold ratio looks primed for a bounce in the near term as capital starts cycling back into digital risk.
Price action’s still soft though. Liquidity looks thin and BTC just retested the $80.6k area before rebounding slightly. We’re eyeing the 50-day and 20-day MAs near $90k for any real confirmation of strength. On the weekly, we’re not technically oversold yet, doesn’t mean we have to go lower, but there’s room if sentiment cracks again. The key support for this cycle still sits around $76k, right into the U.S. election window later this year.
On the macro side, Trump officially tapped Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, ending months of speculation. Markets took it as a signal of stability, Warsh has the pedigree, having been a former Fed governor, and is seen as pragmatic. He’s likely to lean dovish near term, which lines up with Trump’s push for lower rates, but he’s not a yes-man either. That balance helped calm fears around Fed independence.
The metals selloff picked up steam after the announcement, compounded by CME hiking margin requirements earlier in the week. Gold and silver had a monster run through 2025, up 65% and 150%, and even tacked on 19% and 45% YTD before this flush. Feels like the blow-off phase might be behind us, and the setup for BTC to regain some dominance is getting cleaner by the day.
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