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Risk assets came under renewed pressure Wednesday as a combination of geopolitical escalation and stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data rattled markets. Bitcoin, which had been consolidating around the $74,000 level, quickly broke lower toward the $72,000 range following reports of intensified attacks targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure and a sharp uptick in oil prices. At the same time, February’s Producer Price Index surprised to the upside, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains sticky despite signs of economic slowing.
The macro backdrop has become increasingly complex. Rising oil prices, driven by tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, are feeding directly into inflation expectations at a time when markets were beginning to price in potential rate cuts. The hotter PPI print has forced a reset in those expectations, with traders now questioning how quickly the Federal Reserve can realistically ease policy. This dynamic is weighing on risk sentiment across both crypto and equities ahead of today’s FOMC decision.
Bitcoin’s price action reflects this uncertainty. After holding relatively steady through most of the past 24 hours, the break below $74,000 triggered a wave of selling, pushing BTC down roughly 2% on the day. Altcoins followed suit, with Ethereum, Solana, and XRP seeing slightly deeper losses as market participants reduced risk exposure. The move suggests positioning remains fragile, particularly after the recent attempt to stabilize above key levels.
In traditional markets, U.S. equity futures reversed earlier gains and are now pointing to a weaker open, while safe-haven assets have also seen volatility. Gold initially sold off despite the geopolitical backdrop, highlighting the dominance of inflation and rate expectations in driving cross-asset flows. Meanwhile, crude oil surged toward the mid-$90s per barrel, further complicating the Fed’s path forward.
All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later today. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, the focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance and how policymakers balance rising inflation pressures against signs of weakening growth. The outcome could set the tone for risk assets into the coming weeks, particularly as markets navigate the intersection of geopolitics, inflation, and monetary policy.
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This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.
Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.
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Crypto and/or digital currencies involve substantial risk, are speculative in nature and may not perform as expected. Many digital currency platforms are not subject to regulatory supervision, unlike regulated exchanges. Some platforms may commingle customer assets in shared accounts and provide inadequate custody, which may affect whether or how investors can withdraw their currency and/or subject them to money laundering. Digital currencies may be vulnerable to hacks and cyber fraud as well as significant volatility and price swings.
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