October 26, 2023

Markets Insights

Economic Calendar

Next FOMC meeting: Nov 1st 2023

  • Probability of a 25bps ease → 2%
  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 98%

The News Room

JPMorgan Handles $1B Transactions Daily In Digital Token JPM Coin: Bloomberg

JPMorgan's digital token, JPM Coin, is currently handling daily transactions worth $1 billion, as per a recent Bloomberg report. The Wall Street giant aims to broaden the scope of the coin's application, revealed Takis Georgakopoulos, the bank's head of payments. Launched in 2019, JPM Coin was designed to facilitate blockchain-based wholesale payments between JPMorgan's global institutional clients' accounts. Although initially used for dollar-denominated transactions, the coin expanded its support to include euros in June. The bank intends to continue this trajectory of growth and diversification for JPM Coin.

Vodafone's Digital Asset Broker Proves Blockchain's Potential in Global Trade

Vodafone's Digital Asset Broker (DAB) has successfully shown the potential of using blockchain for trade in a recent proof of concept. Partnering with Chainlink Labs, Sumitomo Corporation, and InnoWave, the project aimed to address challenges in the vast $32 trillion global trade sector. This trial allowed devices to generate computer-readable information autonomously to streamline trade processes, where Chainlink's cross-chain interoperability protocol ensured secure and smooth data and token exchanges across multiple blockchains. An application of this technology could see cargo vessels autonomously initiating marine cargo insurance processes in response to emergencies, such as fires. Additionally, Vodafone DAB is now part of the Chainlink network as a node operator to assist developers in accessing external data.

Mastercard Teams Up With MoonPay for Web3 Push

Mastercard and cryptocurrency payment app MoonPay are collaborating to explore opportunities in the Web3 ecosystem to enhance consumer engagement and loyalty. Revealed at the Money20/20 event, this move highlights the card industry's increasing involvement in Web3 functionalities, including stablecoin payments and Ethereum transaction optimizations. The partnership will enable MoonPay to utilize Mastercard's Crypto Credential system, ensuring trusted, regulation-compliant transactions and integrating payment solutions like Mastercard Send. Furthermore, MoonPay's subsidiary, Otherlife, will provide Web3 creative agency services, amplifying the collaboration's impact. This association builds on Mastercard's initial efforts with MoonPay in 2022, enabling cardholders to purchase NFTs.

Genesis Global Capital Submits Updated Bankruptcy Plan to Address Creditor Claims

Crypto Lender Genesis Global Capital, has submitted an updated Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan to address creditor claims and interests. The revision comes after extensive discussions between Genesis, the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors, crypto exchange Gemini, and the Ad Hoc Group of Genesis Lenders. The proposal divides creditor claims into 10 categories, including four crypto-denominated classes. The plan envisions the formation of "Wind-Down Debtors" responsible for asset liquidation and distribution to creditors. Furthermore, corporate governance will undergo significant changes. This restructuring emerges in the wake of the 2022 cryptocurrency market downturn and aims to provide a structured resolution to the company's financial challenges.

Trading Desk Insights

Thursday's stock futures are painting a grim picture, with the Nasdaq poised to delve deeper into its correction, thanks largely to Meta's recent quarterly results that missed the mark for many investors. This follows a tumultuous session on Wednesday, which saw the Nasdaq dip by 2.4%, hitting its lowest point since June. A substantial contributor to this drop was Alphabet's 9.5% plunge - its steepest decline since March 2020.

On the European front, the ECB has hit the brakes on its interest rate hikes, choosing to keep its benchmark rate at an all-time high of 4%. This comes after a consecutive series of 10 rate hikes since July 2022, the likes of which had steered rates into the green for the first time since 2011.

Switching gears to crypto:

Bitcoin's bull charge remains unrelenting. The upward trajectory that kickstarted on October 16th has been mostly steady, rarely backtracking below earlier lows. An examination of the 4-hour chart reveals the 20-period moving average as a resilient support level. However, traders should be wary if prices drop and close beneath this 20-period average, currently hovering around 33,700. Another red flag would be a breach of the ascending trend line, pinpointed near 33,000.

On the trading floor, we're witnessing some capitalization on profits, yet there's a palpable appetite to reenter at lower levels. A bracket between 29,800 to 32,000 seems like the sweet spot for setting limit orders. Current BTC ATM volatility stands at approximately 55 with ETH at 45v.

In ETF updates, BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF proposal has made a comeback on the DTCC's watchlist after a brief hiatus.

For those contrarian souls who bet on Grayscale Investment's bitcoin trust (GBTC) amidst January's crypto downturn, their foresight has paid off grandly. GBTC shares have rocketed 220% to around $26.80 this year. As the buzz around GBTC ETF conversion approval grows, the consensus is that market makers will recalibrate the price back to NAV once active trading commences.

Technical Charts


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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