September 25, 2023

Markets Insights

Economic Calendar

Next FOMC meeting: Nov 1st 2023

  • Probability of a 0bps hike → 81.6%
  • Probability of a 25bps hike → 18.4%

The News Room

European Investors More Bullish on Crypto Than American, CoinShares Report

A recent CoinShares report highlights a regional divergence in cryptocurrency investment sentiment, particularly between European and U.S. investors, likely fueled by differing regulatory landscapes. While European investors pumped $16 million weekly into various crypto products, the U.S. saw a withdrawal of $14 million from the cryptocurrency market. Over the past month, European outflows were reported at over $24 million, significantly less than the U.S. outflows of $67.5 million. Germany led European inflows with $18.1 million, while Switzerland saw the region's largest outflow at $2.6 million.

The report speculates the divergence may be due to Europe's progressive regulatory framework, such as the upcoming Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation set for December 2024, and recent introductions like its first Bitcoin ETF and Gnosis Pay crypto debit card. In contrast, the U.S. faces regulatory uncertainty with delayed ETF approvals and ongoing high-profile lawsuits against major industry players, contributing to a challenging investment environment.

MicroStrategy Buys 5,445 Additional Bitcoin for $147 Million

MicroStrategy has bought an additional 5,445 Bitcoin for $147.3 million, at an average price of $27,053 per Bitcoin, from August 1 to September 24, as reported in a recent Securities and Exchange Commission filing. This new acquisition increases the firm's total Bitcoin holdings to approximately 158,245 Bitcoin, valued at around $4.1 billion with the current Bitcoin price hovering around $26,000. The total investment to acquire these Bitcoin stands at about $4.68 billion, averaging $29,582 per Bitcoin, including fees and expenses. This purchase follows MicroStrategy's earlier procurement of 12,800 Bitcoin for roughly $361 million over two transactions in June and August.

Google Cloud Pushes Deeper Into Blockchain Data, Adding 11 Networks Including Polygon

Google Cloud is expanding its 'BigQuery' program to incorporate 11 additional blockchain networks, including Polygon, Optimism, and Polkadot. Launched in 2018 with Bitcoin blockchain data, BigQuery has since added networks like Ethereum and Dogecoin. This tool allows for easier access and analysis of historical blockchain data compared to querying the blockchain directly. Despite the current market conditions, Google Cloud continues to invest in the blockchain space. The recent inclusion of more blockchains in the BigQuery program aims to provide a broader view across the crypto landscape, accommodating demands for multi-chain data analyses. Data queries could range from NFT minting statistics on specific blockchains to network fee comparisons.

Trading Desk Insights

Stock futures nudged down on Monday, marking a challenging start to the concluding week of September trading. The S&P 500 is down 4.2% this month, potentially marking its second consecutive month in the red and its steepest drop since last December. The Nasdaq Composite, with a notable weightage in tech, has seen a decline of 5.9% as growth-oriented stocks took the major hit, lining up for its largest dip since December.

Several factors weighed on the markets this month. The Federal Reserve's indication of sustained higher interest rates led to a spike in bond yields. Specifically, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped over 30 basis points, now standing at 4.51%. Additionally, there's been a notable surge in crude oil prices and a persistent uptrend in the dollar during this traditionally softer trading period.

In international news, shares of the beleaguered Chinese real estate giant, Evergrande, listed in Hong Kong, plunged by up to 25% today. This follows the firm's announcement about postponing a critical debt restructuring meeting scheduled for today.

The S&P500 seems to be trading within a Head-and-Shoulders pattern which is considered a bearish reversal pattern. If the index breaks and closes below 4340, it would confirm the breakdown of the pattern and trigger bearish implications potentially sending the index to its profit target of 4,100.

Moving on with crypto.

BTCUSDT broke below the intraday support of 26,500 and is now trading at 26,100, located in the previous trading range of high volume between 25,550 and 26,500. Next support is located at 25,550 on an intraday basis but remains 25,150 on the daily chart.

On Friday at 08:00 UTC, Deribit, the cryptocurrency options exchange, will witness the expiry of 1.217 million BTC and ETH options contracts, representing a notional value of $4.8 billion. Historically, the quarterly expiries in March, June, September, and December have been particularly notable due to their significant volume and value. For the September expiry, the max pain price points for BTC and ETH are set at $26,500 and $1,650, respectively. It's pertinent to note that "max pain" refers to the price level at which option holders would incur the maximum financial loss upon expiry.

Also, MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 5,445 BTC for $147.3 million at an average price of $27,053 per BTC. According to Michael Saylor, the firm holds a total of 158,245 BTC worth $4.68 billion at an average price of $29,582 per BTC.

Technical Charts


This research is for informational use only. This is not investment advice. Other than disclosures relating to Secure Digital Markets this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates, and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate.

Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of crypto assets may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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